As much as the calendar says mid-October, the temperatures say long summer without end. After a warm September, the eighth worst of the 21st century with 0.6° above normal, so far in October the temperatures have remained warm with some ups and downs and, far from adapting to the calendar, there will be a new rise that will last at least until the middle of next week, advances Rubén Del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). Thus, a weekend of stable weather awaits Spain, with heat ―25° in general, 30°-32° in the south of the peninsula and points in the Bay of Biscay, and 35° in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys― and the absence of rains – although an Atlantic front is in sight that will leave precipitation in the northwest between Saturday and Monday.
In 2022, the summer conditions (hot and little rain) have extended to the “neighboring” months: the period May-June-July-August-September 2022 has been BOTH the hottest and the driest in the series history in Spain. pic.twitter.com/u0lDt3v0BY
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) October 13, 2022
The cause of these values, between 5° and 10° above normal, is the sum of the anticyclone, which stabilizes the atmosphere and clears the clouds, and the arrival of a mass of warm air from lower latitudes. “This year 2022, for the moment, is being the warmest in the entire historical series, which starts in 1961”, summarizes Del Campo.
The rise, which began on Thursday, will continue this Friday. Sunny skies will continue, although with some clouds in Galicia, the Strait area and Melilla, where a drop is not ruled out. In addition, there will be some haze in parts of the southern half. Although the morning from Thursday to Friday has been cool in the northern half, with less than 10°, temperatures will rise to over 25° in large areas of the country, with 26° in Madrid, Pamplona and Palencia, 28° in Ourense, 30° in Murcia, Toledo and Cáceres and 32° in Badajoz, Córdoba and Seville.
Saturday will be another day of anticyclonic weather, but a front will begin to approach from the Atlantic and will leave rains in Galicia, which will gain intensity throughout the day in said community and that at the last minute may spread to nearby areas. On Sunday, the front will continue to advance and there will be more rainfall in Galicia, more abundant in the north and west of the region. They can also reach points in Asturias and the northwest of Castilla y León. In the rest of Spain, the cloudiness will increase and a shower in the afternoon in the interior of the peninsula cannot be ruled out.
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Temperatures will continue to rise on Saturday in the east and south of the peninsula. On Sunday there may be slight decreases in the interior of the peninsula due to increased cloudiness, but in the southeast and in the Bay of Biscay they will continue to rise. They will reach 32° to 34° in Córdoba, Seville and Murcia and 30° in Almería, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Logroño, Málaga and Toledo. Santander will be close to 28°/30° and Bilbao, 31°. The lows will also be slightly high. “These temperatures will be accompanied by a southerly wind, which in the third will trigger the risk of fires to be very high or extreme,” emphasizes Del Campo.
On Monday, the front will advance to the northwest and it will rain in Galicia and western Asturias and Castilla y León. It will also cause evolution clouds to form that will leave showers scattered and unevenly distributed throughout the interior of the Peninsula, more likely and more intense in points in the northeast. It will not rain in much of the Bay of Biscay, the southern half and the Balearic Islands.
Temperatures will continue to be high in general, with winds from the south that will keep the risk of fires very high or extreme in the eastern Cantabrian Sea, where they will reach 30° for another day. There will be tropical nights – in which it does not drop below 20 ° – on the Mediterranean coast and in the Guadalquivir, a valley where during the day it will reach 35 °. “These are mid-summer temperatures in mid-October,” says Del Campo.
On Tuesday there will be “a new temperature spike” and it will possibly be the hottest day of this summer episode, with 37° in Córdoba, 36° in Seville, 34° in Jaén, 33° in Toledo, 32° in Badajoz and Ciudad Real , 31° in Cáceres and 30° in Bilbao, Logroño and Madrid. But there is some uncertainty: “It depends on the position of an area of low pressure that is located in the Atlantic. Most likely, it will stay away and leave rains only in Galicia and send southerly winds to the rest of the territory, which will keep temperatures high at least until Wednesday.”
As for the Canary Islands, on Friday there will be moderate and persistent rains in the north of the islands with greater relief, which will cease on Saturday and leave sunny weather during the weekend, with some haze. That stable weather with rising temperatures will continue for the first few days of next week.
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