Latest attacks
On Tuesday, Hezbollah launched drone attacks on the town of Nahariya in northern Israel, killing one person. It also launched drone attacks on the headquarters of the Golani Brigade and Egoz Unit 621, in the Shraga barracks north of Acre, and announced the shelling of an Israeli army site, near the Zar’it barracks, with artillery shells.
On the same day, Israel launched an airstrike targeting a house in the town of Meifdoun in southern Lebanon, killing several people, including five Hezbollah members, a day after another Israeli airstrike, on Monday, killed a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan unit.
In Iraq, the US Ain al-Asad base was hit by missiles on Monday, injuring several Americans, days after four people were killed in a US airstrike in Iraq.
Military experts explained to Sky News Arabia the relationship between these attacks and the expected Iranian response to Israel, in retaliation for the assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas in Tehran on July 31, which came a day after the assassination of Fouad Shukr, a prominent leader in Hezbollah, in an Israeli raid on the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Prelude to response and “shortcomings” in response
Lebanese military expert, Brigadier General Naji Malaeb, describes the increased frequency of drone launches from Lebanon and the attack on Ain al-Assad base as a prelude to the Iranian response.
Malaeb points to the significance of the attacks on Israel in terms of military preparations, which is that they showed that a rocket was able to reach the command of the Golani and Egoz brigades, and a drone bypassed the Iron Dome and hit its target; which means that the Iron Dome may not be able to deal with all the expected attacks, despite the pledges of government and army officials to residents of the northern settlements that security is at its highest levels and the Dome is ready for any breaches.
Complex response
Iraqi military expert, Brigadier General Ayyad Al-Tufan, agrees that the strikes from Lebanon and Iraq against Israel and American bases are part of the Iranian response, and that “the timing may differ, but they are all part of one action, which Iran is preparing for through its proxies, and which is known as a complex response.”
The flood rules out the possibility of a strong response, and measures that by the limits of the response to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Iranian Quds Force; therefore, the current Iranian escalation “is a media escalation, in light of Tehran’s keenness not to expand the battles; because it knows that Israel is not alone.”
Soleimani was assassinated in a US airstrike in Baghdad in 2020, and the Iranian response was an attack on a US base in Iraq, which did not result in any deaths.
The Iraqi military expert stresses that Israel did not dare to assassinate Ismail Haniyeh “except with the knowledge, approval and support of Washington. If the battle intensifies, there will be American intervention; therefore, the response will be simple and normal.”
Iran’s strategy after the October operation
In the words of the Iraqi strategic expert, Major General Alaa Al-Nashou, Iran “uses a strategy based on escalation and appeasement together; as a state, it works on appeasement so as not to provoke Washington and the West, and opens escalation fronts in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to increase pressure and obtain more guarantees at the expense of the region; to remain an effective regional power.”
According to Al-Nashou’s assessment, the recent attacks by Iraqi factions and Hezbollah are not considered to have any significant impact on Israeli and American political and military decisions, for reasons including:
- The rules of engagement have not changed, and all of Iran’s capabilities and arms do not have the ability to confront the American and Israeli deterrent force.
- Strategies changed in many of their calculations after Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa (Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023). Iran, which used Hamas as a forward force to protect its arms in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, relied on a strategy of defense more than attack, due to the significant weakness of the air force, and was satisfied with responding with drones and ballistic missiles.
- The Israeli side, days after the Al-Aqsa flood, shifted from disorganized defense to a preemptive attack, due to its possession of a destructive air force, which was able to undermine all the offensive plans of Iran and its arms.
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