‘Amsterdam is an economic pacesetter this year and in 2022’

This is apparent from Rabobank’s economic regional forecasts. According to the bank’s models, growth expectations for the industry for 2022 are lower. “Then it is the areas with a lot of catering and a large leisure sector that stand out. Think of the areas around The Hague and Haarlem. Greater Amsterdam, however, is the region with the greatest expected growth in both years. That region suffered the biggest blow last year, but is rebounding considerably this year,” said Rabo researcher Rogier Aalders.

The Dutch economy will probably grow by 4.5 percent this year, due to a strong recovery in the second and third quarters. Next year, the economy will be hampered by the effect of the current corona measures, high inflation and the shortage of materials and personnel.

Nevertheless, the expected growth is 2.9 percent in 2022. Aalders: ,,If the measures become stricter, we expect growth of 2.6 percent. The consequences of the barriers differ greatly per sector. For example, the catering industry in particular will probably show significant recovery growth, but growth in industry and healthcare will slow down and we even expect a small contraction in trade.”

The ten regions with the highest economic growth expectations this year almost all house a lot of industry and/or a lot of logistics. The industry already recovered from the crisis in the second half of last year and will also grow strongly in 2021. These regions will benefit from this. Southeast Brabant (Brainport Eindhoven) also benefits from a favorable business climate. The innovative high-tech cluster offers advantages for companies there.

However, the largest growth (5.74 percent) is recorded in Greater Amsterdam. That region, which also includes Schiphol, shrank by no less than 8.5 percent last year. As a result, recovery growth is strong this year. This is in line with the CBS estimate.

In a number of tourist areas, the nuisance caused by corona in the catering and leisure sector was less severe than the average in the Netherlands. This applies to Southwest Friesland, North and South Limburg and the Veluwe. Those areas were able to benefit slightly more than average from the domestic holidays.

According to Aalders, economic growth is mainly continuing in Greater Amsterdam. “The region owes its high expectations to favorable regional conditions, such as the high density and mass of the economy, the large and well-educated labor market and the knowledge networks.” quarter of the national growth (in absolute terms). “In that case, the region can rightly be called the leader.” Due to a shortage of raw materials and technically trained personnel, the growth of the industry is expected to fall, so that the industrial areas will probably grow less quickly next year.