Reuters quoted an informed source as saying that these discussions include options such as deploying multinational forces after the end of the latest escalation in the conflict in Gaza and forming a temporary administration led by Palestinians, but they exclude politicians affiliated with Hamas, granting a temporary role to fill the vacuum in security and administration to neighboring Arab countries, and temporary supervision from United Nations on the sector.
Another American source described the process as still being informally “in the process of brainstorming ideas.”
Blinken in Amman
On Saturday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will discuss ways to stop the war in Gaza during his visit to the Jordanian capital, Amman, in a meeting with his counterparts in Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and a representative of the Palestine Liberation Organization in Amman with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken..
A Jordanian Foreign Ministry statement said that during the meeting, the Arab ministers will confirm the Arab position calling for an immediate ceasefire and the immediate and urgent delivery of humanitarian aid to the Strip. They will also discuss with Blinken all the repercussions and ways to end this dangerous deterioration that threatens the security of the entire region..
There are major questions about the situation, including whether Israel will actually be able to eliminate Hamas as it promised, and whether the United States and other countries will commit soldiers to separate Israel and the Palestinians beyond long-standing hesitation on the matter.
The White House said on Wednesday that “there are no plans or intentions” to deploy American forces on the ground in the Gaza Strip.
It is also not clear whether the Palestinian National Authority, which has limited self-rule in areas of the West Bank, will be able or willing to take over the administration of the Strip.
On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken raised the possibility of “renewing and reviving” the National Authority, but the administration of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is pursued by suspicions of corruption and mismanagement.
Any entity that seeks to impose authority on the Gaza Strip after the war will also have to deal with the general impression among Palestinians that it is beholden to Israel.
White House National Security spokesman John Kirby said, “We know there are a lot of questions about post-conflict Gaza and what that will look like, and we are certainly asking ourselves some of those same questions and talking with our partners, including Israel.”
He added, “We know that whatever it looks like, it cannot look like it did on October 6. Hamas cannot remain in control. But we have not reached any final answers, and we will not be able to do so without close consultation with our regional partners.” .
Even if Israel is able to overthrow the Hamas leaders, it will be almost impossible to eliminate the feeling supporting the movement among the residents of the Gaza Strip, which increases the risk that any party in charge of its administration will be exposed to new attacks, which may include suicide bombings.
Aaron David Miller, a former American negotiator in the Middle East file, says, “If the Israelis succeed in crushing Hamas, I think it will be very difficult to form a ruling structure there that has legitimacy and effectiveness.”
He continued, saying, “For me, the possibilities of what comes next are fantastic.”
These discussions are increasing at a time when Israel is expanding its fierce air, land and sea attack on the Gaza Strip, but they are also driven by what American officials consider Israel’s failure to come up with a vision for what comes after the final confrontation.
Cost of reconstruction
There is growing awareness of the fact that the amount of international aid required to rebuild the Gaza Strip will be enormous, and that money will be almost impossible to obtain from Western governments if Hamas remains the party running it.
Blinken said, minutes before he left for a visit to Israel and Jordan, that his meetings in the region would not only deal with “concrete steps” to reduce harm to civilians in the Gaza Strip, but would also touch on matters related to post-war planning.
“We are focused on today,” Blinken told reporters. “We also need to focus on what comes after that.” He indicated that he sees the basis for permanent peace as being on a path at the end of which a Palestinian state will be established, a goal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long resisted.
Iraq and Afghanistan and lessons learned
American officials say in private conversations that they and their Israeli counterparts talked about drawing lessons from the mistakes and missteps that Washington made in its invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, including the lack of preparation and readiness for what followed.
Among the options discussed by American officials is the formation of a multinational force to maintain order. It could include a mix of European and Arab countries, although no government has explicitly expressed its willingness to participate in such a force.
US President Joe Biden, who in 2021 ended his country’s two-decade military presence in Afghanistan, will most likely not want to get involved in direct military action in a new foreign conflict as he seeks re-election as president in 2024.
Some political analysts have also floated the idea of deploying a UN-backed force in the Gaza Strip, either in the form of an official UN peacekeeping force such as the one on the Israel-Lebanon border or a multinational force with UN approval.
But diplomats say that such a move is not up for discussion at the United Nations, and that a move would require the approval of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council.
Such tasks usually face huge obstacles. In October 2022, Haiti requested international assistance to fight violent gangs. A year later, the UN Security Council approved the formation of a foreign security mission after delays due to facing major difficulties in finding a country prepared to lead that mission. Kenya applied for this, but Haiti is still waiting for the mission to actually arrive.
To complicate matters further, Israel will likely oppose any security role for the United Nations, especially after Israeli officials criticized UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for saying that Hamas’ attack on October 7th against Israel “did not come out of nowhere.”
Israel expects the war to last long, but says it is not interested in reoccupying the Gaza Strip.
Regional umbrella
Experts from outside the region, some of whom are known to be familiar with the thinking of American policymakers, are assessing what the situation in the Gaza Strip might be like after the war.
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator and White House advisor, says that if Hamas can be stripped of its “strong authority” and disarmed in the Gaza Strip, “this may open the way for the formation of an interim administration with a government of technocrats led by Palestinians working under some kind of international or international umbrella.” Regional or both.
He said that the details will require a complex discussion led by the United States with the Palestinian Authority and other major parties concerned and who have interests in achieving stability in the Middle East.
But for this to work, Ross says, Israel must limit the time frame for its military presence in the Gaza Strip, otherwise any entity that rules will lack legitimacy in the eyes of the Strip’s residents.
An article by Ross and two colleagues at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy suggested that once Israel withdraws, the security role in the Gaza Strip could be assumed by “a consortium of five Arab countries that have reached peace agreements with Israel.”
But there is some skepticism about the possibility of reaching such an arrangement. “Arab countries will not send soldiers on the ground to kill Palestinians,” said Miller, who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
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