The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a close race. In individual states it could also depend on Americans abroad.
Washington – When either a female president or a new, old president is elected in the USA for the first time on November 5, 2024, a total of around 250 million people will be eligible to vote. Despite this impressive number, it could be a minority that ultimately decides the election. Around 4.7 million Americans live outside the country worldwide and are also allowed to cast their votes. Data shows: Americans abroad have a greater influence than one might initially think.
The news portal Newsweek has evaluated figures from the US election commissions from the previous 2020 election as well as surveys. They come to this Result: The group of Americans abroad could be crucial, especially in the hotly contested swing states. In these states – such as Arizona, Florida or Michigan – the decision is usually extremely close.
US election 2020: That’s how close it was in the swing states between Trump and Biden
This was also partly the case in the last election in 2020. The incumbent US President Joe Biden won in the state of Georgia with just 11,779 votes ahead of the Republican Donald Trump. These were compared to the 18,475 foreign votes that were counted for Georgia. In this context, voters living abroad are significantly more important than all voters in the state. Biden was also only narrowly able to prevail in Arizona and Wisconsin in 2020.
The Democrat won in Arizona by just 10,457 votes, while 18,435 voters cast ballots for the state abroad. In Wisconsin it was a lead of 20,682 votes. In this case, 13,530 votes were cast outside the USA. In contrast, Trump won North Carolina with 74,483 votes, with 26,386 foreign ballots counted. Here it didn’t matter so much to the Americans abroad, although the difference in the number of decisive votes was limited.
Because of postal voters abroad: Drama in the 2000 US election between Al Gore and George W. Bush
The fact that Biden was ultimately elected to the office of US President and not Trump again was to a certain extent due to the US voters living abroad. However, this is not a new phenomenon, such as the advocacy of US Republicans living overseas Newsweek according to notes. Another example is the 2000 election, in which George W. Bush won Florida by a narrow margin.
Although the Democratic candidate Al Gore received 202 more votes than Bush in Florida on election day, after the mail-in ballots from abroad were counted, Bush won the state – by 537 votes. Although there were subsequent discussions about the legality of the election, the example shows the influence that Americans abroad can have on elections. Possibly also in November 2024, when it will be: Harris or Trump?
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