The uncontested absolute majority (58 deputies out of a total of 109) achieved by the PP in the Andalusian elections comes not only from the loyalty of its voters (82.2%), but also from the transfer of votes from the PSOE, Ciudadanos and Vox , according to the post-election study of the elections to the Andalusian Parliament prepared by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published this Tuesday. The PP of Juan Manuel Moreno, who asked for the transversal vote of all political formations, was nourished by 15.6% of former voters who opted in the elections of December 2, 2018 for the socialist Susana Díaz, says the survey.
Even greater is the transfer of voters from Ciudadanos to the PP, 64.7%, while those who opted for Vox three and a half years ago, 31.4% have now chosen the ballot led by the current president-elect of the Council. Also significant is the data from the post-election survey of the CIS directed by José Félix Texanos, which indicates that 10.9% of those who affirm that they voted for the PSOE in 2018 now assure that they did not go to the polling stations, which confirms the demobilization of the traditional socialist voter.
The penetration of the PP in all social classes is predominant, according to the CIS survey, which crosses the data on voting recall with the employment status of those interviewed. Traditionally, the PSOE was the party of choice among the unemployed, unpaid domestic workers, and pensioners. The last Andalusian elections have caused a turnaround: the PP has been the party preferred by the unemployed (30.4%), almost 13 points more than those who assure that they voted for the PSOE; by 39% of domestic employees, mostly women, which represents a little more than 21 points of difference; and for 40.4% of retirees, compared to the 21.3 who in this situation opted for the PSOE ballot.
Regarding the scale of ideological location, 41% of the PP voters are located on a scale of 1 (extreme left) to 10 (extreme right) in 5, the pure center; while in the case of the PSOE only 11.7% do so. 27.9% of Andalusians who went to the polling stations on June 19 decided their vote in the last days of the campaign. Of that figure, 15.7% decided in the last week of the campaign, on June 7. 9% on the day of the vote and 4.3% on the day of reflection. However, 62% of those interviewed confess that they solved them “for quite some time”.
The post-election survey was carried out just the week after the regional elections, from June 21 to 27, and consisted of 3,909 interviews. The margin of error is ±1.6%.
The recent Andalusian elections gave the Popular Party an absolute majority. It obtained 43.1% of the votes and 58 seats, 22.3 points and 32 minutes more than those of the 2018 elections. The PSOE led by Juan Espadas worsened its results and dropped from 33 to 30 seats and took 24% of the votes, 3.8 points less. Vox rose in percentage (13.4%, 2.5 more points) and in seats (from 12 to 14), much less than expected by the candidacy headed by Macarena Olona.
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The lefts to the left of the PSOE concurred separately and obtained worse results than when they were together in 2018. For Andalusia, a coalition of six parties including Izquierda Unida, Podemos and Más País, obtained 7.6% of the votes and five seats, which allows it to form its own parliamentary group. The confluence Adelante Andalucía, led by Teresa Rodríguez, achieved two parliamentary acts and 4.5%. Citizens has disappeared from the Andalusian Parliament by not obtaining any seats.
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