That everything was better in the past is a common human bias, though rarely has this bias stood up to scrutiny. And Franco-German relations are no exception. although it is bilateral relationship has long been of the greatest importance for Europe, it is also true that it has always been characterized by disputes and even deep ruptures.
The mythologizing is understandable. The relationship between France and Germany laid the foundations of the European Union, which began as a coal and steel community in the early 1950s, and remains its central hub. Without these countries – the most important players, politically and economically speaking, and who embody the balance between the Mediterranean north and south of the continent – it would not have been possible to make real progress towards European integration.
However, after the 2004 enlargement, the internal wheels of the EU became more complicated, since a new dimension was added to the traditional north-south orientation: that of Central and Eastern Europe. And the importance of this region has only increased now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded a sovereign country and brought full-scale warfare to the continent.
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However that conflict is resolved, Putin’s aggression has radically changed the strategic calculus and created the conditions for a new kind of Cold War. If Russia represents a foreseeable long-term threat that will force Europe and its Member States to invest much more in the ability to defend themselves, their democratic system and their principles, by military means.
Putin’s war of aggression has shattered the illusion that Germany can remain a peaceful trading country indefinitely
In short, the EU must become a sovereign geopolitical actor with its own deterrent capabilities to defend its interests. This challenge belongs to Germany before all, and not only because it is the most populous Member State, located in the heart of Europe and boasts the largest economy. Just as relevant is his own horrific 20th century story: he twice ignited war on the continent, committing unimaginable crimes under Hitler until his unconditional surrender and partition.
The main aggressor of the first half of the twentieth century it became a prosperous country of merchants and manufacturers. Renouncing war and promoting a pacifist policy that took deep roots in its people, Germany became a great exporting country. Over time, this post-war trajectory allowed him to rebuild ties of trust with his former enemies, which was a precondition for the 1990 reunification.
But Putin’s war of aggression has shattered the illusion that Germany can remain a peaceful trading country indefinitely. After 30 years of relative peace and prosperity, today Europe once again finds itself under direct military threat. As the greatest economic power on the continent, Germany will have to say goodbye to her pacifism and begin to rearm, putting, in practice, strategic value to her economic power.
It has already taken steps in that direction. In his Zeitenwende (decisive moment) speech at the end of February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a new €100 billion special fund for the German military. But make no mistake: it is inevitable that this new Germany will be regarded with suspicion by its neighbours, especially France.
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It is understandable that France, as the only nuclear power in the EU and its only member state with a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (two things that Germany does not want and will never achieve), is suspicious of the new role of its neighbour. It is not yet clear what kind of Europe the new Germany wants, and this uncertainty has given rise to unnecessary insecurity. The displays of ineptitude and lack of coordination by the German government after Scholz’s speech were not very helpful.
Too many suspicions between France and Germany could lead to misunderstandings and unforced errors on both sides, giving rise to conflicts that will further affect European security. With a large-scale ground war on its eastern border, Europe needs the exact opposite: much closer cooperation and collaboration between its two largest members, and especially in joint armed projects.
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The situation has been made more complicated by the shift to the east in the EU’s center of gravity, and by its recent promise to expand to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. These new accession processes will accelerate the transformation of the EU from a joint market and modernization project to a geopolitical player.
These regions, together with the Eastern Mediterranean and North and West Africa, will be the main focuses of concern for European security in the coming decades. Europe will need to interact with them, while working closely with its transatlantic partners through a strong NATO. But whether the EU can do so will depend primarily on France and Germany continuing to work together in a spirit of friendship and good faith, despite disagreements and new complications.
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JOSCHKA FISCHER
Former German Foreign Minister
© Project Syndicate
berlin
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