Åland Islands Åland should wake up to Russia, says professor living on the island – This is how a Swedish researcher assesses the defense of the island

Helsinki / Stockholm

Why no one talks about this, the professor emeritus of political science thought Göran Djupsund.

He moved to Åland a few years ago. Last week, he followed closely what was happening on another island on the neighboring side.

The Swedish Defense Forces began patrolling the streets of Gotland and attracted a lot of attention in both Sweden and Finland.

With a military presence, Sweden responded to the Russian threat because more ships than usual sailed in the Baltic Sea.

The island of Gotland is of great strategic importance, emphasized the Swedish Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist and compared its significance to Åland and Bornholm in Denmark, which the military alliance NATO sent a ship over the weekend to secure.

But what happened in Åland? Not much. The main news in the local newspaper on Saturday was the pride of Åland, a bus running on a fish diesel, Djupsund wondered.

“The security policy situation should also be discussed in Åland, but there is no desire to talk about it here,” he says.

Conversation the difficulty is partly due to the fact that Åland is a demilitarized territory, which means that a military presence in the province is not allowed.

“Of course, this is true, but the agreements also state that when it comes to a tight spot, Finland must defend Åland. There is no desire to raise this aspect in the debate, ”says Djupsund.

He contacted magazines and local decision makers and unraveled his feelings on Twitter. Eventually local Ålandstidningen published an editorial on the security situation in the Baltic Sea and the role of Åland, asking how to act on the island if war breaks out in its vicinity.

On Wednesday, Djupsund also spoke In the Hufvudstadsbladet in a published story.

Djupsund believes that it would now be important for Finnish and Åland’s decision-makers to send a signal that there are clear plans to defend the island.

“I have an assumption that decision-makers have a conversational connection, but telling it out there would be a significant signal,” he says.

In Sweden, the Defense Forces have now carried out spectacular operations and made them public. In Finland, on the other hand, the Defense Forces do not usually comment on issues related to readiness.

In an interview with the Broadcasting Corporation on Wednesday, the Commander of the Defense Forces Timo Kivinen said that “even in this situation, the Defense Forces will be able to monitor and safeguard the territorial integrity of our country every day of the year”.

What does that mean for Åland?

In Finland has long been well prepared for the defense of Åland, says docent at the Swedish National Defense College, assistant professor Tomas Ries.

Although no troops may be deployed to Åland during peacetime, Finland has the ability to move troops to the island quickly if necessary.

“During the Cold War, it became clear from open sources that in the 1980s, for example, the Pori Brigade was ready to move quickly to Åland. And it was also legally sustainable, because the agreements allow Finland to temporarily protect Åland in a war situation, ”says Ries.

Right now, Ries does not consider it likely that Russia would attack Åland or Gotland, for example.

“The reason is that they need to focus their efforts on Ukraine. Even if Russia had special forces that could land on the islands, they should be able to keep the islands to themselves. That would be difficult because they have to focus on the other front. ”

However, according to Ries, it must be remembered that the situation may be different in the future.

Russia is of interest to the islands, among other things, because air defense systems could be deployed on them.

“In the short term, the Russians are most concerned about the U.S. Air Force. If Russia were to try anything in any of the Baltic countries, they would have to make sure the U.S. Air Force doesn’t get bombed. That’s why the islands are interesting. ”

In Åland is also of great importance to Sweden. Maybe even bigger than for Finland, says Tomas Ries.

What role does Sweden play in defending Åland?

“There are no open sources that tell us directly about Sweden’s role, but the island is very important to Sweden because it is so close to Stockholm and Arlanda Airport.”

That is why it is important for Sweden to ensure that Russia does not occupy Åland.

In recent years, Finland and Sweden have significantly intensified their defense co-operation and are working together in the event of war planning. There are a lot of joint exercises, and it is from the exercises that conclusions can also be drawn about defending Åland together, Ries says.

“In the way Finland and Sweden have developed their co-operation, the Archipelago Sea plays an important role. The Swedish navy, the amphibious regiment and the Finnish Uusimaa brigade have been training together so that they have the ability to fight together in this very area. ”

On Wednesday, the Chief of the Finnish Armed Forces Janne Huusko commented on the defense of Åland in an HS interview.

“Of course, Finland is defending Åland. That is Finland’s duty, ”he said.

According to Huusko, there are other ways to defend Åland than to take troops to the island.

Read more: Chief of Staff of the General Staff: Preparedness has been strengthened, the security situation is difficult to predict

Because the subject is politically sensitive, not much has been said in public about Åland’s defense. The situation is different for Gotland.

For example, the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) counted in its September issue in its report Russia’s chances of conquering Gotland by attacking from Kaliningrad.

In the event of an occupation, the population of the Russian forces, the transfer army, should be at least double that of the Swedish forces, the report suggests. Russia has troops in Kaliningrad, but neither such nor enough to conquer Gotland.

Russia would need ground troops to take over both Gotland and Åland. These troops arrive on the scene jumping from the air with parachutes, and Russian ground troops are particularly feared.

However, they have not been transferred to Kaliningrad, says the previous head of the Finnish military intelligence Pekka Toveri.

“If two of Russia’s three landing brigades or one of its air strike brigades had been transferred to Kaliningrad, it would have even been visible through OSINT,” Toveri wrote on Twitter.

Osint refers to open source intelligence, such as image evidence of site followers accumulating on social media, as well as up-to-date changes in satellite imagery.

In addition Sweden’s combat status is better known. HS sources estimate that Swedish troops on Gotland could fight up to three times the force. This is due to the combat potential, the calculation of which is complex mathematics.

Equipment, training, motivation and preparation time, for example, affect the combat potential. Speed ​​is the trump card in action.

In the analysis of military operations, it is known that having a front seat has more benefits than having to do it retrospectively. That is, the one who has the Underpower should act in time rather than later.

For this reason, the troops brought to Gotland from Sweden were imaginative and effective, not merely symbolic evidence.

Åland however, defending is more difficult for Finland than defending Gotland for Sweden. First, there must be a political decision to send troops. This is slow. It also takes time to move the troops.

“A similar dilemma for the defender as with Gotland but with a power of three,” says one military source.

However, the demilitarization agreements are not quite black and white, Brigadier General Evp, Saab’s Country Director for Finland, told Hufvudstadsbladet Anders Gardberg. During his career, Gardberg has served as commander of the Uusimaa Brigade and Finland’s defense ombudsman in Sweden.

“There are exceptional procedures that can and should be taken advantage of. The Defense Forces have long-range influence, rapid reaction forces and good opportunities to move units quickly, ”Gardberg told Hbl.

According to Gardberg, the actual permanent structures are not required for the defense of the islands.

In the Baltic Sea Russian warships in motion would probably have had the ability to attack Gotland or Åland, estimates Tomas Ries. However, conquering and maintaining the islands would have required more.

“But it was clear that the Swedish Defense Forces couldn’t just sit on their hands. Preparedness needed to be increased, and what Sweden did was right. ”

According to Ries, Russia is now playing above all a psychological game.

“Putin trying to intimidate Europe as much as possible so that we agree to his demands for NATO and Ukraine. And if his demands are not accepted, he is likely to use military force in Ukraine. ”