The comparison of Ukraine's battlefields with a meat grinder has become tired. But if you saw – through the eyes of a Ukrainian observation drone – what the 182,000 tungsten balls from the warhead of a missile do when it is detonated right above a group of Russian infantrymenyou understand exactly what is meant by it.
After a few such 'shots of hail', among the sand drifts of the Oleshky National Park, in the Russian-occupied part of the southern Cherson region, about a hundred soldiers stop moving.
Just as compelling are the images that did not exist before the start of Putin's 'special military operation' two years ago this Saturday: the death of individual soldiers by a grenade, filmed from the drone that dropped the explosive. Such drones are called FPVs (van first person view), because they are controlled remotely like in a video game. X, formerly Twitter, wholesales such snuff movies, as The Economist she described.
Although it often concerns one grenade on one soldier, in a foxhole or trench, often filmed at night in lugubrious infrared, the total numbers involved are enormous. This is also “the meat grinder into which Russian soldiers disappear,” @elliotreports, an X account that follows military developments in Ukraine, wrote on Thursday at a bloody compilation. Dilute meets PlayStation.
Quadcopters
What started as a project of Ukrainian hobbyists who converted toy quad-copters to drop grenades on Russian tanksnow has industrial scale: Ukraine produces at least a hundred thousand FPV drones per year and aims for a million. It also develops and builds a colorful arsenal of other drones – officially unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – for observation and for long or shorter range attacks.
But in the field of observation and kamikaze drones, Russia was already a colossal player. And while it's putting out far fewer FPV videos on X, it's quickly catching up on that front, if it hasn't already surpassed Ukraine.
“The ubiquity of drones is driving dramatic changes on the battlefield,” wrote Mykola Bielieskov, Ukraine analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank, this week. Permanent observation by UAVs makes surprise attacks extremely difficult. Above all, “they act as a precision weapon that can take over many functions of artillery and missiles,” Bielieskov said. Moreover, they are agile and can do things that a grenade cannot, such as chasing a van of soldiers down a country road. “And all at a fraction of the cost.”
Just think: a standard 155mm artillery shell costs up to a few thousand euros, while a 'smart', GPS-guided 155mm grenade, such as the American Excalibur, costs around 100,000 euros per shot. Which is considerably cheaper than one Himars missile. While a small battlefield drone does not have to cost more than a few hundred euros.
Psychological warfare
This week also showed how such killer drones flew into a workshop for Russian tanks and armored vehicles and, almost carelessly, took them out one by one, after which the warehouse burned down.
It was a tour de force of pilotage and psychological warfare. But it also showed that this precious target was right not was attacked with conventional ammunition. That might have been just as effective, but the shortage is very acute for Ukraine now that the supply is at a standstill, especially from the United States due to the obstruction of Trump-loyal Republicans in Congress.
Ukrainian artillerymen complain that they are now so rationed that they are missing opportunities on the battlefield. And President Zelensky knows about the fall of Avdiivka in short, to these ammunition shortages. Russia, by contrast, can fire five or more shells for every Ukrainian shell, thanks to ramping up its own production and deliveries from North Korea.
Despite the scaling up of European ammunition production and the upcoming delivery of 800,000 grenades via the Czech Republic, Ukrainian shortages will persist for the time being. Armed drones can therefore help close that gap.
The killer drone is a classic 'asymmetrical weapon' for Ukraine: as a weaker party you can use it to hurt the stronger one a lot. Just as simple, buried explosives were for a time effective in Afghanistan against the best-protected Western vehicles, an expensive, difficult-to-replace Russian T-90 tank can be no match for a 'flying roadside bomb'. But is it enough?
That drones can completely replace artillery is “fundamentally incorrect”, said Roman Holoditskyi, commander of a Ukrainian artillery batteryagainst the Kyiv Independent. “Artillery has always had the X-factor on the battlefield. It is not without reason that infantrymen ask for artillery support, not drone support.”
Avdiivka
In the four months of the Battle of Avdiivka, Russia lost according to one Western estimate more than 200 tanks and 10,000 soldiers; net a complete 'old style' Soviet division. A critical Russian military blogger, Andrei 'Murz' Morozov, who refused to retract his estimate of 300 tanks and 16,000 soldiers lost, was found dead this week.
According to some analysts, Russia cannot sustain such losses; more Russian deaths occurred at Avdiivka alone than during the fifteen year that Soviet troops fought in Afghanistan. The comparison with Stalingrad (1942-'43), where one in three Russian soldiers died and which nevertheless marked the turning point in the war, seems more appropriate. Because Russia has developed strategic patience over the past two years, has a large stock of soldiers' lives and traditionally does not look for one more or less.
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Russian losses also do not disguise how precarious Ukraine's position is compared to a winter ago. Then Putin licked his wounds after losing what was supposed to be a military quickie; some Russian officers already had their festive uniforms with them for the victory parade in Kyiv on February 24, 2022. Russia lost that battle gloriously through overconfidence and poor planning, through the improvisational ability of the brave Ukrainians with Western intelligence and weapons. Ukraine then chased the Russians far back at Kharkiv and Kherson, into the Donbas and across the Dnipro.
Stalemate
But the summer offensive that was supposed to bring the Ukrainian breakthrough, at least to occupied Crimea, got stuck in the Russian minefields. Since then, despite the loss of Avdiivka, and earlier Bachmut, the front line has not moved significantly. In that 'stalemate', as recently replaced commander Valery Zaluzhny called it, much Ukrainian optimism has evaporated.
'Avdiivka' now mainly appears to be an intermediate step towards further Russian offensives to the northwest, towards Kharkiv. According to the authoritative Institute for the Study of War (ISW) it concerns “the first coherent offensive operation along different 'axes' in a year and a half.” Everything shows that Putin has not given up on his ultimate goal, the subjugation of Ukraine, and believes he is winning. According to the British military think tank RUSI he has already loosely penciled in victory for 2026.
“Russia may learn more slowly than Ukraine,” wrote Australian military analyst and former general Mick Ryan“but once it does, Russia is capable [het geleerde] systematically put into practice”. The longer the war lasts, the more that “strategic adjustment” works to Russia's advantage, according to Ryan. “The ultimate consequence, without an appropriate Western response, is not a stalemate. That is a Ukrainian defeat.”
Evolution, not Revolution
Drones of any kind are not a panacea. Evolution, not Revolutionthe American think tank CNAS named a recent report. Russia can also have the longest breath in this area. Successful attacks by long-range drones on Russian refineries, power stations or a military airfield are spectacular, but their effect is mainly psychological.
Yet there is one area where Ukraine appears to have an undisputed strategic advantage. In the Black Sea, it has managed to reopen a corridor for its crucial grain exports. And that is largely due to unmanned systems and superior surprise technology.
Ukrainian cruise missiles and naval drones have destroyed a total of 26 Russian naval vessels and damaged an unknown number. As a result, the Black Sea Fleet has not ventured below the Ukrainian coast for some time, where the grain ships sail. Moreover, naval ports in Crimea are no longer safe for Russia.
It has no answer to this yet, but the West is also following this with suspicion. Because “cheap disposable precision weapons also tend to end up in the hands of criminals and terrorist groups,” wrote The Economist. So it is rather a question of when, not if, Iran and the Houthis will use virtually invisible fast drone boats against cargo and naval vessels in the Red Sea.
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