Using the marine metaphor, when a ship faces a storm, certain postures are required of the captain. Being agile, understanding the movement of wind, waves and rain are crucial. It was more or less like this in the pandemic. All ships (or countries) faced the same storm as Covid, but the way their respective commanders dealt with it signals how they will get out. According to a study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the world economy is expected to grow 5.6% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. The high estimate for Brazil’s GDP was 5% for 2021, and 1.4% for 2022 – well below the world average and the worst result of the entire G20. According to the OECD, “prolonged political uncertainty and increased fiscal risk can undermine credibility, dampen inflation expectations and reduce investment growth.” There is an anti-flu for Brazil.
Vacancy in the Supreme Court
Former Justice Minister André Mendonça was, after four months of uncertainty, questioned by the Senate about his potential entry into the Supreme Court (STF). Calm and resilient, Mendonça did his homework well. He reinforced his commitment to democracy by saying that he will use “at home, the Bible and, in the Supreme Court, the Constitution”. He also said that he had already warned Bolsonaro that it would not be possible to open the sessions of the Court with prayer, as the Messiah had suggested. He spoke about the legality of gay marriage and apologized to relatives who lost family members during the military dictatorship. But the biggest catch was what he didn’t say. When asked about the decree on the possession of weapons and the timeframe for indigenous lands, he stated that he could not give an opinion because both issues are being analyzed by the STF. It was a clever departure from the man Bolsonaro called “terribly evangelical” and who called the president a “prophet.”
“Now we know our enemy and the steps to take. We cannot rest until we are all vaccinated” Christine Lagarde President of the European Central Bank.
The scenario for Brazil in the third quarter of 2021 was as follows: 13.5 million unemployed (or 12.6% of the economically active population). Worker income falling by 11.1% (the lowest since 2012) and 12.9 million underemployed and discouraged. The portrait revealed by Ipea does not look like the photo of a Brazil that had a positive balance of 175,000 jobs in 2020 (in the midst of a pandemic) and which, in the words of Paulo Guedes, “is taking off in the economy and generating jobs, despite the crowd. it is against saying that it is not true”. And, in the end, which indicator is wrong? Caged, the employment indicator that nailed the 175 thousand jobs created in 2020, needed to review its calculation basis: Brazil lost 191.5 thousand.
20% is the estimate of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) of a drop in Afghanistan’s GDP with the restriction of women in the labor market imposed by the Taliban. Over the years, this percentage can reach 30%
Central bank crypts
On the 16th, the IMF published a document on the first steps of the Nigerian eNaira, a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency, or digital currencies of Central Banks) launched at the end of October. The American think thank Atlantic Council monitors about 90 countries and divides them into six stages — Launched, Pilot, Development, Research, Inactive, Canceled & Others. Brazil is on the third level (Development). But all global expectations are on the Chinese version, the e-Yuan, which is already being tested in the country.
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