Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblaststo the east of Ukraine, but above all the sending of troops to this region constitutes, according to most analysts, a clear escalation of the crisis between Moscow and the West with unpredictable consequences.
(Read here: Why Donbas is the bone of contention between Ukraine and Russia?)
Leaders in Washington and European capitals declared President Vladimir Putin’s move a flagrant violation of international treaties and the sovereignty of Ukraine.
(You may be interested in: Crisis in Ukraine: Europe proposes first package of sanctions against Russia)
However, despite announcing the imposition of sanctions, both the White House and Europe’s response has been ambiguous and is already being criticized by many.
Sanctions, but for now with few teeth
“What he had told us was that if a single tank crossed the border, the strongest sanctions would be unleashed. That just happened. These are not peacekeeping forces but an invasion and nothing has happened,” said Michael McFaul, former ambassador to Russia during the Barack Obama administration, on Tuesday.
According to Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, Putin’s move was strategic because limiting his incursion to just these two provinces divides the West. “Was the incursion serious enough to merit the use of the full arsenal of sanctions? That is Putin’s bet,” Bremmer said in statements to the Washington Post.
Biden, by keeping the bulk of the sanctions for now, leaves a small window open for a solution to the crisis. If he uses them all now, analysts say, he would not only close the door to a diplomatic exit, but could even justify a deeper invasion, since Moscow would no longer have anything to lose.
The problem for the US president and other European leaders is that he is exposed to strong domestic criticism, which has already begun to surface. Sen. Lindsay Graham, for example, called Biden weak and called for the immediate use of all contemplated sanctions.
(You are interested in: How close have China and Russia come in the crisis with Ukraine?)
Diplomatic paths are closed
Although efforts are still continuing, the Russian invasion of the Donbass has practically closed diplomatic channels for a solution.
The meeting scheduled for this Thursday between Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his counterpart Sergey Lavrov is up in the air. And the chances of a Putin-Biden summit, which was discussed this weekend, are currently non-existent.
The most serious thing about the situation is that few believe that Putin will back down. In fact, many think that his ultimate goal was probably the annexation of these two territories and the threat of a full invasion of Ukraine was just a decoy to achieve this goal.
Since neither the US nor Europe wants a military confrontation with Russia, the only course is the imposition of the strong economic sanctions that they had promised. But they will probably give a brief waiting period to justify them.
What follows from then on nobody knows.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
Correspondent of THE TIME
Washington
On Twitter @segom68
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