A meta-study that compiled 50 years of statistics on African elephants found significant declines in their populations. According to the authors, this is the most complete assessment of the situation of this animal and its subspecies (the savanna elephant and the forest elephant) distributed in 475 places and 37 countries.
The report states that the savanna elephant population declined by up to 70% from 1964 to 2016. Meanwhile, forest elephant populations declined by 90% in their natural habitats. Overall, the number of African elephant populations decreased by 77% in the study areas.
Poaching and habitat loss were the main factors responsible. While elephants are captured to extract ivory from their tusks and import it to China and other countries in Asia, the agricultural expansion of African peoples destroys the sanctuaries where they live.
It’s not all bad news for elephants
The study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that the behavior of elephant populations is not homogeneous. In some points, populations disappeared, while in others they paradoxically increased. The results can be explained by the multitude of government and organizational efforts to preserve the mammal and combat poaching. The most notable case of success is that of southern Africa, where the elephant population increased by 42%.
“While the overall picture is discouraging for both forest and savanna elephants, we see that some populations remain stable or even growing (…) Our results tell us that, if well protected and managed, populations of Elephant numbers may still increase despite increasing pressures surrounding them and their habitats. In fact, elephants need our help now more than ever,” explained Boo Maisels, study co-author and conservationist at the Wildlife Conservation Society.
The savanna elephant and the forest elephant are subspecies of the African elephant. The first (African Loxodonta) reach heights of up to 3.3 meters and weights of up to six tons. The seconds (Loxodonta cyclotis) are usually smaller, with a maximum height of 2.7 meters and a weight of up to four tons. Those that live in the savanna have larger ears, while those in the forest have straight and thin fangs.
Order to data
Although there are many efforts to quantify the effects of the African elephant, scientists agree that it is difficult to understand the magnitude of the phenomenon due to different monitoring methodologies. At an individual level, 50 years of study on the decline of elephant populations represents a rich reference library, but from an overview, they are a cluster of studies with different perspectives.
The work led by George Wittemyer, a scientist at the Save the Elephants association, took all this data, which does not always coincide, to give it order under a hierarchical Bayesian model (a tool for calculating probabilities). This is how African elephant density trends emerged over five decades.
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