After a strong rise since mid-November, the wave of covid-19 infections caused by the omicron variant shows signs of having exceeded its peak in Africa, which was reached on January 10 with 46,000 cases in one day, and maintains a downward trend in the last week. Although these figures must be read with caution given the limited diagnostic capacity and the fact that in two regions of the continent, West Africa and the Maghreb, the worst is not over, the truth is that health systems are suffering less pressure than with variants precedents such as the delta. The immunity acquired by the wide circulation of the virus in previous waves and by the increase in vaccination, still discreet but constant, are among the possible causes of this lower impact.
The decline in cases is undoubtedly led by South Africa, where the omicron was identified for the first time in November and the nation with the highest capacity to test in the entire region. This country went from less than 300 daily cases in November to a peak of 23,437 on December 17, the worst record since the pandemic began, according to Our world in data; From that day on, the curve has been falling until reaching 6,036 infections registered on January 13. South Africa marks the passage to the continent, which went from 46,050 cases on January 10 to 38,268 last Friday. “Early indications suggest that Africa’s fourth wave has been pronounced and brief, but no less destabilizing,” Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, regional director of the World Health Organization (WHO), said this week.
As with the rest of the world, ómicron has spread through Africa at great speed. Two months after its discovery there are cases in 39 of 54 countries on the continent and it is dominant not only in South Africa but also in other nations such as Nigeria. Its proportion with respect to the delta increases in Senegal, Ghana, Morocco or Tunisia. Although its lethality is lower than in previous variants, countries such as South Africa, Eswatini or Botswana exceed two deaths per million inhabitants and Namibia almost reaches six, all of them in the epicenter of the omicron in southern Africa. Of course, most of the deceased were high-risk people, said Dr. Abdou Salam Gueye, director of WHO Emergency Preparedness and Response in Africa, at a press conference on Thursday.
In addition to its limited capacity to test, only South Africa, Gabon, Tunisia and Rwanda exceed the rate of one daily PCR per thousand inhabitants, the weak point of the African management of covid-19 continues to be vaccination. In recent weeks, the barrier of 10% of the population has been overcome with the complete schedule of vaccines (a month ago it was 7%), but the differences between some countries and others and between the countryside and the city continue to be huge. “This year should mark a turning point in the vaccination campaign against covid-19 in Africa. With large sections of the population still unvaccinated, our chances of limiting the emergence and impact of deadly variants are woefully slim,” added Dr Moeti. “We have the knowledge and the tools, and with a concerted push, we can certainly tip the scales against the pandemic.”
Although during the first six months of last year the main problem was access to vaccines caused by hoarding by rich countries, currently the difficulties have to do with management, logistics and the rejection of the population. According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Africa, the continent has received 563.6 million doses but only 341 million have been administered, that is, 60% of them. Organizational and logistical problems in the face of the erratic arrival of vaccines have caused the destruction of millions of doses due to expiration, as in Nigeria three weeks ago.
Empty stadiums at the African Cup of Nations
Cameroon has been hosting the 2021 African Cup of Nations (CAN) since January 9, the great continental football festival that is held every two years and that this time was delayed to 2022 due to the pandemic. Football stars who play in Europe, such as the Senegalese Sadio Mané or the Egyptian Mohamed Salah, return to Africa to play for their national team. However, this time they are doing it in practically empty stadiums and this is mainly due to covid-19. After many doubts about the celebration of the CAN in the middle of the fourth wave caused by the omicron variant, the African Football Confederation lowered the occupation of the fields to between 60 and 80% and decided that it was necessary to have the complete immunization schedule for access the stands or, otherwise, do so with a negative PCR test in hand.
In a country with 2.4% of people immunized and with a notable rejection of vaccination, where for many people getting a PCR is a real luxury, the result is that Mané, Salah and the other African stars are playing in stadiums with a capacity of up to 40,000 people but occupied at 10 or 15%. Faced with this failure, those places where you can follow the matches on television both in Cameroon and in other African countries, where neither tests nor vaccinations are required, are full to the brim.
Although it is not an exclusive phenomenon in Africa, the refusal of the population to be vaccinated is fueled by numerous factors, such as a dimmed perception of the disease due to limitations when carrying out tests, the weight of colonial medicine and unfounded rumours. that circulate about adverse effects, which are sometimes presented as intentional, such as the sterilization of women to reduce the population that was already spread in previous immunization campaigns against other diseases.
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