Afghanistan No speeches, no shots of honor – the United States leaves Afghanistan rather than Vietnam and can return to Taliban rule

According to the expert, it is the turn of the “light version” of the tyranny of the 1990s.


The parable comes from a visiting leading expert at the Foreign Policy Institute Olli Ruohomäki mind as soon as the speech turns to the departure of U.S. troops from the Bagram military base in Afghanistan.

U.S. forces abandoned the 2001 war in Afghanistan its main air base In Bagram, north of Kabul, on Friday last week at three in the morning without informing the Afghans.

Commander of the 3,000 Afghan soldiers, General, arrived on Friday Mirassadullah Kohistani, reportedly did not get the lights on, as the bandit who had visited the base in the morning had taken the generator.

There was plenty of other stuff left. Newspaper The Guardian according to the U.S., 3.5 million items were left in place, from canned items to thousands of military and civilian vehicles. However, most cars stand on the runway without ignition keys.

No guard change ceremonies, no speeches, no honor shots, no star flag dropping, and no Afghan tricolor lifting.

U.S. forces loaded off-road vehicles home for transportation in Kandahar in July last year.

Ruohomäki considers it clear that after the withdrawal of the United States, the days of Afghan President Ashraf Ghan are numbered and the Taliban will rise to power.

Ruohomäki the parable of the evacuation of Saigon, the former capital of South Vietnam, now Ho Chi Minh City, in April 1975 is not bad.

Thousands of Americans and their local allies and their families fled the siege of Communist North Vietnamese forces. The escape culminated in more than a day of helicopter evacuation flights from the roof of the U.S. Embassy.

The United States had lost the Vietnam War, and now it has lost the war in Afghanistan. President Joe Biden has held on to its predecessor Donald Trumpin decision to end the “eternal war”.

The Pentagon currently estimates that the last U.S. soldiers will leave the country by the end of next month.

The United States and the main goal of the Taliban movement fighting its allies has been the expulsion of “disbelieving crusaders,” i.e., U.S. soldiers, from Afghanistan.

Ruohomäki considers it clear that after the withdrawal of the current president of Afghanistan from the United States Ashraf Ghanin the days are numbered and the Taliban rise to power.

Ruohomäki refuses to predict the timetable, but compares the current situation to the end of the Vietnam War rather than the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989. Moscow-backed President of Afghanistan Mohammad Najibullah resigned in 1992 and was killed by Taliban forces in Kabul in September 1996.

“Najibullah lasted two years, after all,” Ruohomäki points out.

Olli Ruohomäki has a long experience of Afghanistan.

Ruohomäki compares Taliban tactics to Nazi German progress on the Eastern Front in 1941.

In Kandahar The 1990s triumph of the extremist Islamic Taliban movement in southern Afghanistan, all the way to northern Afghanistan, returned to the minds of many last weekend. News agencies report more than a thousand Afghan army soldiers fled the Taliban to the Tajik side.

On Wednesday, Tajikistan said it had flown three hundred troops who had crossed the border back to Kabul.

The Tajik population inhabits the areas on both sides of the border, and the northern neighbor has housed tribal brothers from the Afghan side in a tent camp on the border.

“The morale of the Afghan army has collapsed, and its internal cohesion has been weak anyway,” Ruohomäki estimates.

The Taliban has conquered areas around Afghanistan in recent years as the United States has reduced its troops and their support for the Afghan military. Afghan Tolo News according to a report published last February, the movement already held more than half of Afghanistan’s land at the time.

Afghanistan is divided into 34 counties and further into about four hundred counties.

Of these counties, only 27 were wholly owned by the Taliban in February and 64 were wholly owned by the government. In the remaining three hundred or so districts, power was held by both – often with the county center being in the possession of the government and the countryside under the Taliban.

“The Taliban’s progress has been really smart,” Ruohomäki estimates.

“They have sent their interrogators to individual police or military checkpoints and made a threatening demand that you have two options: you give up your weapons and we guarantee you safe access to your home or if not then you will be killed. The infantry base soldier pretty quickly concludes that this was here. ”

Ruohomäki compares Taliban tactics to Nazi German progress on the Eastern Front in 1941.

“During the lightning war in Nazi Germany, large cities were toured and returned to later. The Taliban have the same tactics. It does not make sense to attack the provincial centers, because that imposes a burden of government: things must be agreed with the civilian administration. It’s better to let the government get busy there. ”

Since April, the Taliban have, according to U.S. sources, changed its tactics slightly, taking full control of dozens of territories and raising its white-black flag in the district centre’s administration building. On Thursday, fighting was fought in the county town of Qala-i-Nawi, with a population of 60,000, northeast of the western city of Herat. The news agency AFP reports this.

In addition to the successful strategy of the Taliban, their success has been guaranteed by the weakness of the opponent. There is no Tajik commander who was assassinated in 2001 Ahmad Shah Massoudin heroes like.

A Uzbek commander known for his bravery Abdul Rashid Dostum and known as the butcher of Kabul Gulbuddin Hekmatyar are old, politically obsessed guys and no new generation of warlords has appeared.

Kandahar who died in Pakistan in 2013 Mullah Omarin the Taliban movement founded by the Taliban has built its ideology on Islamic Sharia law and the traditional customary law of the Patan people.

The movement became known in the 1990s for religious police arbitrariness, flogging and public hangouts at football stadiums, as well as the confinement of women at home and the wearing of burqa robes.

Ruohomäki is a long-term expert in Afghanistan and has been responsible for the Finnish Embassy in Kabul. He has also been in contact with Taliban representatives and does not believe in the return of former terror, although the Taliban will eventually settle in Kabul’s administrative districts.

“The Taliban is not the same Taliban, but it is a light version of the 1990s Taliban,” Ruohomäki says. “The main reason for this is that the world has changed. They do not want a state of rejection like North Korea, but they want international recognition. ”

“The Taliban have stated that they have nothing against diplomats or international aid organizations, but give them security guarantees. Even their interpretation of the status of women is different from that of the 1990s, rather the Saudi model. But they are no Sunday School students. The Taliban has been demonized but for many good reasons. ”

The government of Kabul, supported by the West, will not be disappointed in Ruohomäki.

“These bastards, many of them have hands in blood and deep in the drug mafia. That these are good and the Taliban bad? This has been a naive attitude for 20 years. ”

The United States representatives have comforted their allies in Afghanistan by promising to continue to support – whether military, one way or another.

Politico magazine according to the Biden administration is trying vigorously to negotiate with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan the possibility of opening a military base. Beyond the border, air support could be provided to Afghan government forces.

At the beginning of the Afghanistan campaign in the 21st century, the United States had a base in Uzbekistan and, until 2014, in Kyrgyzstan. When they were established by the presidents George Bush and Vladimir Putin considered themselves on the same side in the war on terror.

Now it is different, and Putin certainly has views on the military bases of the Central Asian republics.



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