In a new survey, the AfD continues to lose favor with voters. In addition to the Union, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance could particularly benefit.
Berlin – The AfD’s downward trend in recent weeks seems to be confirmed. The party has also slipped significantly in a survey by the opinion research institute Ipsos.
AfD continues to lose in new survey – Union remains firmly in the lead
The right-wing populists lost four percentage points in the survey compared to the previous month and still came to 18 percent. At the end of last year, the AfD was still regularly achieving results of 20 percent or more. If there were a federal election next Sunday, the Union would still be one of the big winners. As in the previous month, the CDU and CSU received 30 percent of the vote in the survey.
18 months before the election, the Union is already publicly debating possible coalition partners. Party leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) recently appeared open to an alliance with the Greens. However, CSU general secretary Martin Huber and JU chairman Johannes Winkel refused to work with the Greens.
Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht comes to eight percent – FDP slips in surveys
Meanwhile, the survey shows a two-fold picture for the ruling traffic light parties. While the SPD (15 percent) and the Greens (13 percent) are unchanged compared to the previous month, the FDP loses two percentage points and still has 4 percent. This means that the Free Democrats slipped below the five percent threshold in the Ipsos election survey for the first time and would therefore miss out on re-entering the Bundestag.
Meanwhile, the newly founded Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party can look forward to an impressive result. The alliance around the former parliamentary group leader of the Left comes to eight percent in the Ipsos election survey and would therefore make it into the Bundestag. The BSW was converted into a party on January 8th before an association. The party will then appear on a ballot paper for the first time in the European elections in June 2024.
method
For the survey, the opinion research institute Ipsos surveyed a total of 2,000 eligible voters in Germany online between February 2nd and 4th. The data was weighted to be representative. The question was: Which party would you vote for if there were a federal election next Sunday?
AfD continues to lose in survey – demos against the right and Wagenknecht as a trigger?
Robert Grimm, head of political and social research at Ipsos, sees the founding of the BSW as the trigger for the AfD's loss, in addition to the ongoing demonstrations against right-wing extremist forces. “Moderate protest voters find it difficult to continue to sympathize with the AfD. On the other hand, Wagenknecht’s BSW now offers a left-wing national alternative and is attracting at least some potential voters from the AfD,” explained Grimm in a press release.
Meanwhile, the Left (4 percent) and the Free Voters (3 percent) fall below the five percent hurdle. The other parties accounted for five percent.
| SPD | 15 percent |
| CDU/CSU | 30 percent |
| Greens | 13 percent |
| FDP | 4 percent |
| AfD | 18 percent |
| left | 4 percent |
| Free voters | 3 percent |
| BSW | 8 percent |
| Other | 5 percent |
After publications about the Potsdam meeting – AfD is weakening in surveys
Publications by the research network Correctiv about a meeting between right-wing extremists, AfD politicians and members of the Union of Values are considered to have triggered the protests. Since then, the AfD has lost in surveys conducted by various opinion research institutes. Before publication, the right-wing populists achieved results well above the 20 percent mark. (fd)
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