The future dispute over the succession of Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas could lead to “mass protests, repression” and the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, warned this Wednesday (1st, Tuesday night in Brasilia) the International Crisis Group (ICG).
The think tank released a prognosis a day after Abbas, 87, met in Ramallah with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who had visited the region to call for an easing of tensions in the face of rising violence between Israel and Palestinians.
Due to Abbas’s age and rumors about the fragility of his health, speculation is growing about a possible successor in the occupied West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority (PA) is headquartered.
The Brussels-based ICG anticipated in a report that “elections based on legal procedures” would be the “least likely” scenario for when Abbas leaves the presidency.
Abbas heads the PA, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Fatah, the political movement founded by the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
Abbas was elected after Arafat’s death in 2004. Since then, Palestinians have not had presidential elections.
According to the ICG, Abbas “emptied or disabled the institutions and procedures that would otherwise decide who would take his place”.
For this reason, “it is not clear who will succeed him and what process” he will go through, analyzed the study center, which warned of possible “mass protests, repression, violence and even the collapse of the Palestinian Authority”.
Abbas has repeatedly canceled plans to hold presidential elections, such as in 2021, citing Israel’s refusal to allow voting in East Jerusalem, which Palestinians consider the future capital of a Palestinian state.
Although he has not named a successor, Abbas has elevated his civil affairs minister, Hussein al-Sheikh, to second in the PLO hierarchy.
The ICG report cites al-Sheikh and PA intelligence chief Majid Faraj as possible successors.
The two men have extensive powers in the PA and are seen as capable of working with the international community, but the report notes that “neither has managed to generate greater support within Palestinian society.”
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