explained studying published by the Trends Center for Research and Consultation under the title: “Trends of terrorist activity in 2022: growth or decline?”, that “there are many complex and overlapping effects of the “Covid-19” pandemic, on terrorist activity globally, on the one hand, the pandemic provided some opportunities that Terrorist organizations can exploit it, but on the other hand it has contributed to reducing the activities of these organizations.”
How did the closure policies constitute an opportunity for recruitment?
In the details, the researcher specializing in political Islam and terrorism, Muhammad Qandil, explained in his study that “the closure policies and the resulting social isolation provided an opportunity to increase extremism in societies, as terrorist organizations sought to recruit some elements, especially among those affected by these policies, and on For example, a study by the German Foreign Ministry concluded that the far right in Europe sought to co-opt and recruit anti-vaccine and conspiracy theorists by criticizing government restrictions.
According to the study, “the ban on going out and staying at home increased individuals’ access to the Internet, and thus increased the possibility of accessing extremist content, especially in light of the growing sense of social isolation and individual discontent with the closure policies.”
Governments’ preoccupation
The study found that “the spread of the “Covid-19″ epidemic directly affected efforts to combat terrorism, with some governments devoting a large part of their attention to addressing the epidemic, and achieving an effective public health response at the national level.”
And she continued, “This is what was clearly indicated by the Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ms. Michael Konincks, Executive Director of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee, when she stated that prioritizing countries to respond to the epidemic may lead to an overall reduction in the expenditures they incur to combat terrorism and counter violent extremism, She added that the pandemic may lead to a decrease in international cooperation, which includes funding and support in technical assistance as well, and thus negatively affect the countries with low capabilities that are most affected by terrorist acts.
Camps and prisons..time bombs
According to the study, the spread of the epidemic contributed significantly to the destabilization of the camps and prisons that hold persons suspected of links with terrorist organizations such as ISIS, and as a result of the fear of those concerned in these prisons from contracting the virus, the problems of escape and uncontrolled departure increased and exacerbated, all of which increased in severity in light of There are some difficulties related to these people, including, for example, the problem of repatriating some foreign ISIS elements held in camps in Iraqi Kurdistan, according to the head of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Office, Vladimir Voronkov, there is very slow progress in overcoming the legal and political obstacles And the process that prevents them from returning to their countries of origin.
In its summary, the study warned of an increase in terrorist activity globally in 2022, as “the pace of activity of some terrorist organizations, such as the “ISIS” and “Al-Qaeda” organizations, which, despite receiving painful blows over the past few years, still exist and operate, may increase. To regroup the ranks, and to develop the means used to launch operations.
The evidence for this is that these two organizations are still present in Iraq and Syria, and in some other regions such as Afghanistan, and some African countries such as Mali, Nigeria and others. Hence, it is not envisaged that the activity of the two organizations will decline, especially since the previously presented indicators indicate that there is an opportunity for terrorist groups in general to move on the ground and carry out terrorist operations.”
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