A race between the Beijing initiative and the counterattack
The Ukraine war is going through a time-out phase, but a new and disturbing element has occurred in its course, represented by the missile and drone attacks that have been translated in the media as the equation “Moscow vs. Kiev”, as Ukraine no longer hesitates to attack Russian lands, not only on the borders, but all the way to attacking the capital. The governor of Belgorod province, which borders Ukraine, indicates that it is in a state of actual war (artillery shelling, incursion by fighting groups, etc.), and calls for the annexation of the Kharkiv region to remove the source of attacks against the province.
Other areas witnessed explosions, including the oil refineries in Krasnodar, in addition to the continuous targeting of Crimea. All of this does not impose a new field reality, insofar as it ignites a debate between Moscow and the capitals of the West about the credibility of the “controls” that it set for the Ukrainian leadership. However, Russia’s return to massive bombing of Kiev called for condemnation from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was silent about the Ukrainian responses inside Russia. Rather, it refrained from condemning the targeting of Moscow, while Washington expressed its disagreement with it.
The Russian bombardment with missiles and drones focused on Kiev and military facilities in its vicinity, and some decision-making centers, and it came within the framework of a strategy of pre-emptive abortion of the Ukrainian counterattack to restore lands that have come under the control of Russia and its Ukrainian allies. That attack was delayed in order to complete the preparations, including the completion of the training of Ukrainian soldiers on armored vehicles provided by NATO, while training on F-16 aircraft is still taking place on a large scale. This Western equipment is intended to balance the new weapons that Russia has pushed to the front since early this year and has tested some of them. Military experts made sure that the battle of Bakhmut, which lasted more than a year, was practically to buy time in favor of the Ukrainian counterattack. However, the Russian side wanted this city, whether because of its symbolism or because it is a strategic key to other vital areas in which it may build its presence.
It also benefited from the length of the battle to improve the conditions of the four regions that it officially annexed late last year. Noting that no Russian offensive moves have been recorded in recent months, observers read this as a “message” to NATO, China and all countries that have committed to neutrality that Moscow considers the current lines to be the borders that it will not abandon in any possible negotiations. The Western allies do not recognize these borders and support the counterattack that aims to change them. As for Kiev, it set a goal for him, which is “liberating the occupied lands” as a condition for any negotiation of a peace treaty.
Although the talk of negotiation is not circulated these days, many diplomats indicate that hopes are still pinned on the contacts that Beijing is making silently and away from the limelight. Rather, they believe that there is a race going on between the counterattack and the Chinese initiative. The Europeans want to know the extent of its progress, betting on it secretly in their daily search for an end to the war, but in the absence of any new data, they find no alternative to maintaining their solidarity with Ukraine.
As Beijing continues to mobilize international support for its initiative, the United States does not hesitate to obstruct it by straining the relationship with China, whether in several economic files or even with air movements in the vital Chinese sphere. What is certain is that Washington has thwarted and continues to thwart any diplomatic move aimed at ending the war, unless it came from it or committed to its terms, but what if the Ukrainian counterattack did not produce the desired results?
* Writer and political analyst – London
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