For pollsters, the group that needs to be paid the most attention in the face of the elections is that of the “no crack”. That is, those who They do not define themselves as Kirchnerists or as Macristas. Contrary to what can be assumed, due to the tension and space that polarization occupies in the media, the “no crack” They are the majority and can distort the result at the polls. For this reason, a new national survey that advances Clarion this Thursday puts the focus on them. What do you think? How would they vote for the legislative ones?
The study that addresses this group in depth is Pérez Aramburú & Asociados, a consulting firm close to Juntos por el Cambio. It was one of those that officially measured for the Government of Mauricio Macri and currently has among its clients the Government of the City. Also, of course, he works for the private world.
Before the consultation of this newspaper, from the firm they assured that this particular poll was done “with own funds, for internal monitoring”. It was a survey of 1,740 cases, during the month of May, with a +/- 2.4% margin of error.
How many are the “no crack” and what do they think
The first important parameter before delving into your opinions is to weigh the volume of the group. “Today, for us there are 24% of Kirchnerists, 17% of Macristas and 64% of people who define themselves outside the crack”, specified from Perez Aramburú.
In the “analytical summary” of the results of the survey, the report specifies the opinions of these voters, neither K nor macristas. Among other things, it stands out:
– When asked about the country’s main problems, they highlight “inflation.”
For the majority of the “no crack”, the important decisions of the Government are made by Cristina Kirchner and not by Alberto Fernández.
– For 62%, the current situation in the country is “negative”.
– 65% consider that the situation is “worse than a year ago” and 50% believe that “it will be worse within a year”.
– For 68% the economic situation is “negative”.
– 54% disapprove of Alberto Fernández’s management.
– 38% evaluate that the Fernández government is “worse than expected”, against 11% who think otherwise.
– 54% are between “nothing and little in agreement” that the President has more powers during the pandemic, as the ruling party proposes in Congress.
Among the “no crack”, Vidal and Larreta have the highest positive image (41%), and Macri the lowest (24%).
– For 55%, important government decisions are “made by Cristina”, against 28% who attributed them to Fernández..
– Regarding the positive images they have of the leaders, the ranking among the “no crack” would be as follows: María Eugenia Vidal and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta at the top with 41%, followed by Alberto Fernández (31%), Patricia Bullrich (30 %), Cristina Kirchner (27%), Axel Kicillof (25%) and Mauricio Macri (24%).
In all these cases, the opinion of the “no crack” is closer to the macristas than to the Kirchnerists.
How would they vote
The final chapter of the report addresses the electoral trends for the legislative of this year. Reminder: after the postponement approved by Congress, the STEP will be on September 12 and the general elections on November 14.
First, Perez Aramburú asks a general question, as other consulting firms have been monitoring: “Although it is still missing, Today would you be closer to voting for candidates of the national government or candidates of the opposition? “.
In the last measurement, 48% opted for the opponents, 30% for the ruling party and 22% do not know or do not answer. With respect to February, the previous parameter, the opposition rose three points and the “ns / nc” one, and the ruling party fell four.
When the distinction is made by group, here the polarization is more marked and the “no cracks” are close to the average.
– 87% of Kirchnerists said they will vote for the ruling party, 86% of the Macristas for the opposition; and among the “no crack”, 50% would do so for the opponents, 23% for the ruling party and 27% “ns / nc”.
But then another question comes up, under the heading of “useful vote”, which should be of more concern to the Government. “Some people say that in these legislative elections they are going to vote for the candidate they like the most regardless of whether you have a high or low chance of winning and others say that They are going to vote for the candidate who has the best chance of beating Kirchnerism. What are you going to do? “
And there, according to the consulting firm, the amount of “no crack” with an anti-K tendency grew.
– In February, 42% of the “no crack” said they would vote for the candidate they like the most and 44% for the one who has the best chance of defeating the government. In May, the former fell to 37% and the latter grew to 52%. In both measurements they completed the “ns / nc”.
This influenced so that, at a general level (including the opinions of Kirchnerists and Macristas), the useful vote against the Government also increased, from 52 to 55 points.
By last, Perez Aramburú presents graphics with Electoral floors and ceilings of the Front of All and Together for Change, where a greater rejection of the ruling party is repeated among those who are located outside the polarization.