It is the fight of the two heavyweights of the PRO, in the district that saw them born and grow: the Buenos aires city. How is the bid today between Mauricio Macri Y Horacio Rodríguez Larreta? Clarion accessed this Sunday to a new survey, limited to the Buenos Aires district, which measures the two referents in three different aspects: image, leadership and vote transfer. The head of government wins in two, but the former president prevails for now in the most sensitive.
The study is from Projection, one of the newest consulting firms in the world of politics. Measured for the last elections and the team that makes up this firm also works for the University of La Matanza, which depends on the national government.
This particular study -618 cases in CABA, from June 15 to 19- They were commissioned by a candidate from an unknown legislator (Juan Pablo Chiesa), as specified in the signature to this newspaper. On the other hand, they denied that they were working for Leandro Santoro -as some versions claimed-, who has already launched himself to head the list of national deputies of the Frente de Todos.
In image, above Larreta
The first filter that Macri and Larreta go through, in addition to other leaders, is that of the picture. And there, as other polls have shown, the head of government clearly prevails.
Larreta combines 56.3% of positive assessment (with 24.7% of “very positive”) with 33.7% of negative (only 15.6% of “very negative”). A balance in favor of 22.6 points.
Macri’s thing is the other way around. It is 52% negative (33.5% “very negative”) and 37.4% positive (10.5% “very positive”). Differential of 14.6 points against.
The survey also measures other leaders of Together for Change. Y the one who stands out is the Minister of Health, Fernán Quirós, one of the cards that the macrismo evaluated for this election but was later discarded. Combine + 57.6% and – 17.3%..
They also end with positive balance María Eugenia Vidal (+ 46.7% and – 42.4%) and Martin Lousteau (+ 44.7% and – 37.3%). Instead, Patricia Bullrich has a differential against (+ 39.1% and – 47.5%).
In leadership, up Macri
The second question that crosses variables of the head of the Government and the former president is: “In your opinion, who is the leader of Together for Change?”. And here Macri wins, although the question is asked in the district that Larreta has been leading for 6 years.
The former president adds 31.7% of the responses, against 24.5% of the mayor of Buenos Aires. They complete:
– Patricia Bullrich: 16.3%.
– Elisa Carrió: 4.7%.
– María Eugenia Vidal: 4.3%.
– Martín Lousteau: 2.1%.
– I don’t know: 16.4%.
Later, Projection Address the debate again from another place: “And who should be the leader of Together for Change?”. There Larreta is up by far, which can be taken as something positive but also negative. On the one hand, people prefer him over the rest, but on the other he would be showing a flaw: despite the support, he still could not exercise that leadership.
The result for this proposal was the following:
1) Larreta: 33.4%.
2) Bullrich: 11.4%.
3) Macri: 9.3%.
4) Vidal: 9.1%.
5) Lousteau: 3.9%.
6) Carrió: 3.6%.
– I don’t know: 29.4%.
In transfer of votes, up Larreta
The last parameter that crosses Macri and Larreta is when the consulting firm inquires for an eventual STEP in the City and confronts candidates supported by one and the other. Y in the endorsement duel, the head of government scores 10 points from the former president.
The duel is more even in the Front of All, when Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner are suggested as the promoters.
This is the complete table:
1) Together for Change – A candidate supported by Larreta: 27.6%.
2) Together for Change – A candidate supported by Macri: 17.5%.
3) Frente de Todos – A candidate supported by Alberto Fernández: 15.8%.
4) Frente de Todos – A candidate supported by Cristina: 14.9%.
5) Libertarian Front – A candidate supported by José Luis Espert: 3.6%.
6) Federal Consensus – One candidate supported by Roberto Lavagna: 3.4%.
7) Left Front – A candidate supported by Nicolás del Caño: 2%.
– I don’t know: 15.1%.
In the sum total per space, Together for Change, he scores about 15 points in Front of All in CABA. A very wide advantage, but below that obtained by Larreta and Macri over Matías Lammens and the Fernández in the last election.
Then there are two scenarios with candidates with first and last names, and there Bullrich (supported by Macri) and Vidal (supported by Larreta) are couples: 38.3% to 39.7%.