It is a first approximation to 2023, when 2021 has not yet matured. new survey national asked about the next presidential election. You had to answer spontaneously. And 11 household names emerged. The result was curious. Not so much for the winner –Alberto Fernandez-, but by the percentage he reached to win: 16%.
The study that showed this scattered scenario is of Real Time Data (RTD), a consulting firm created in 2019 by the political scientist Nicolas Solari -ex Polyarchy-. The firm does daily update studies, which it sells to clients in the country and abroad, and also publishes a complete monthly monitoring with political, economic and social data.
Between January 6 and 10, RTD did a survey of 1,050 cases. Clarion advanced this Thursday part of the study. With striking numbers: 24% believed that the Left Front is not a democratic force and should not compete in the elections. And 23% believed the same about the José Luis Espert space.
Low percentages and triple tie at the bottom
The electoral chapter of the study included the question about 2023. “Who would you like to be the next president of Argentina?”, raised the consultant. The mention of the respondent had to be “spontaneous”. They named almost a dozen leaders, with this order, percentages and a curious triple tie in the background:
1st Alberto Fernández: 16%.
2nd Horacio Rodríguez Larreta: 10%.
3rd Cristina Kirchner: 7%.
4th Maria Eugenia Vidal: 6%.
5th Mauricio Macri and Axel Kicillof: 5%.
7th José Luis Espert and Martín Lousteau: 3%.
9th Máximo Kirchner, Sergio Massa and Roberto Lavagna: 2%.
Does not know: 2. 3%.
First conclusion: the two names that prevail are the ones that are best measured in the image surveys: Fernández and Larreta. In general, in that area, the Buenos Aires head of government is now winning. But as analysts always clarify and it is good to remember: “A good image does not mean votes.”
Part of this sentence is confirmed with the Cristina’s third place. The former president has a high rejection of a wide sector of society, but maintains a hard core of support. Likewise, in this case, as there is so much dispersion, they are all marginal percentages of intention to vote.
The fourth place may be a bit more surprising, because Vidal is one point above Macri. When you look at the clipping that RTD made among the voters of Together for Change, the former governor is tied with the former president: both add 13% against 20% of Larreta.
In the virtual intern of the Frente de Todos, meanwhile, Fernández more than duplicates Cristina (31% to 15%) and then Kicillof (11%). Also interesting how in the general the Buenos Aires president equals Macri and relegates two other government officials with national aspirations: Massa and Máximo Kirchner share the last position with 2%.
The third member of that curious tie in the background is Lavagna, who remains as the great exponent of the image-vow duality: In the same study, the former minister of Kirchnerism appears as the second most valued leader in the country, below Larreta.
Of course that delay It is not new: Lavagna has already suffered a good dose in 2019. Until months before the election he also had an excellent image and afterwards (almost) no one voted for him.