A nuclear war between the United States and Russia would cause a global famine that could kill more than 5,000 million people, according to a study published this Monday in the scientific journal ‘Nature Food’.
Climatologists from the American Rutgers University have analyzed how the soot that would be expelled into the atmosphere by the fires derived from an atomic conflict would affect global agricultural production.
(You can read: What would happen to us if a nuclear war breaks out? Study responds)
Researcher Lili Xia and her group have studied six possible scenarios: five of them correspond to nuclear wars between India and Pakistan, while the sixth is a major conflict between Russia and the United States.
Scientists have made their calculations “based on the size of each country’s nuclear arsenal,” details their university in a statement.
By plugging their estimates into a climate model, experts have calculated the impact on crop production of corn, rice, wheat and soybeans, as well as changes to grazing lands and global fish stocks.
Under the least damaging scenario, a restricted war between India and Pakistan, global average food calorie production would decline by 7% in the five years following the conflict.
(Also: How to survive a nuclear attack? New York instructs its inhabitants)
In the worst case, however, that production would fall by 90% in a period of three or four years.
The decline in crops would be especially severe in the middle and high latitudes, including in the United States and Russia, major food exporters, which would have a serious impact on importing countries in Africa and the Middle East.
More than 75% of the planet would suffer from famine in the worst case scenario, according to the work led by Xia, which speculates on the possibility that agricultural production now destined for animals could serve to feed the human population at first.
(You can read: World famine? This would be Putin’s plan to win the war)
Xia explained that he hopes to analyze in greater depth the effects of a nuclear war on the food chain in future works.
“The ozone layer would be destroyed by the heat in the stratosphere, producing more ultraviolet radiation on the surface. We need to understand the impact of this scenario on food production,” the researcher explained.
*With information from EFE
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