Kirchnerism knew, long before its electoral triumph, that I was not going to have it easy with an unstructured economy, stuck in the same place a decade ago, that does not create employment and it is a direct relative of the social crisis; that is delayed and that, on top of that, is worn down by inflation now in the area of 40% per year. Faced with a scenario that demanded to operate quickly, Alberto Fernández arrived at the Casa Rosada without any defined program, with an unkempt government format and in the litter of a power model that was definitely proven dual.
It is true that the unpredictable jolt of pandemic, but if the question passes over there, the already catastrophic balance of nearly 100,000 dead and the fact that half had been produced in the province of Buenos Aires, speak of the management quality of the purest Kirchnerism. Obviously, it does not look like the best and it is not fair in what was raised as an exclusive objective and that Axel Kicillof It presents similar to a revolutionary feat.
Improvisation, permanent marches and countermarches, the incredible handling of education policy and the place, certainly not stimulating, that we occupy in a table on vaccinations in the region. Reveals that only 10.5% of the inhabitants of Argentina have received the two doses, less or considerably less than, among others, those of Brazil, Costa Rica, Panama, Mexico and Colombia and very far from the 50% recorded by Chile and Uruguay.
Considering the place we occupy in the neighborhood, It is difficult to understand which record the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo Wado de Pedro, refers to, when he maintains: “We are on the record for daily vaccination and the record for the arrival of vaccines in Argentina.” And if we are only facing a record with respect to ourselves, it also smells like a sweetened campaign that “the vaccine will give us the possibility of being happy again”, something that if it were true no one knows when it will arrive.
It is clear from one side to the other that the government to the common end of Alberto F. and Cristina F. continues bogged down in his choice between life and economy from the first quarantine, a year and a half ago. Without solving it or achieving great, appreciable results on either of the two fronts.
Very complicated, risky for those who rule and orbit around those who rule, this panorama marks the way towards the PASO in September and the general legislative in November. And as time has a habit of not stopping, the same panorama explains that from the power a package of measures is being pushed at full speed that seeks to repair, at least in part, the weak economic and social shelf.
Of that suit is the reduction of the income tax for a sector of the salaried employees and the bonds that reinforce social plans. According to specialists’ estimates, around $ 373 billion that could stretch to $ 660 billion, if Kirchnerism decides to use other fiscal resources that it is already snooping around. It is money aimed at raising consumption and oxygenate economic activity, that is, to revive a combo that is too frayed for the electoral emergencies of the ruling party.
It remains to be added that this move is the reverse side of the adjustment that, without pause and silently, applies the same government that outside doors demonizes anything that sounds like adjustment. In fact, a service to the national and popular cause of the also demonized minister Martin Guzman.
Regarding the operation, official data for the January-May period say that spending on the Social Security, that is, retirements, loses by 13 percentage points against average inflation accumulated from January-May 2020 and the same happens with the salaries of the national State. Transfers that go from the Casa Rosada to the provinces to finance current expenses are worse: the price index is already 47 points ahead of them.
And since certain things are better understood when they are put into money, now the sum of the parts sings to call it somehow a savings of $ 250,000 million in just five months, much more if you add the seven that are missing. Such a song sounds with the inflationary tax, that is, the way in which inflation pruned expenses without stopping and inflates income also without stopping.
Pure fiscal harvest, January-May data reports that VAT and Profit collection take 20 percentage points from the average inflation accumulated since then. In AFIP numbers, an extra $ 270,000 million only shared with the provinces.
Everything is outlined, in addition, by the increase in the aliquots of some existing taxes and by the creation of others that raised the tax pressure to the height of the clouds. This means a large State, useful for the most diverse purposes but clearly deficient if measured by the quality of the services it provides.
This is hard data, no biased comments. Like those that some officials are beginning to deploy, regarding a recovery in economic activity more presumed than real and powerful.
That game is played by those who, with industrialist airs, compare factory production in recent months with the very depressed in the same periods of 2020 and conclude in something very predictable. That is, a strong increase that really does not come as much from an improvement in this time as from the enormous weight that the quarantine exerted last year on the economy.
Closer to reality and to a projection of reality is what arises from comparing the figures of the last few months with those of the previous months, that is, of mixing apples with apples. We will see so since January the INDEC industrial production index has fallen in February, April and May, that is to say, in three of the five registered by the known statistics and that has fallen a considerable 5% in May.
With a little effort it will be possible to see that the indicator for May 2021 is 10.6% below that of May 2018, which was not exactly a year of growth but another of the recessive seasons.
Nor does the index of the building, which has regressed in four of the five months of 2021 computed by the statistics. Against 2018 we have a 15% drop, nothing more and nothing less.
It will be to finally see how much the true reality improves the effort that the Government puts in making wages beat inflation and boost the economy.
At the point, they are worth a couple of clarifications: one indicates that in important unions some sections of the increases fall in 2022, after the elections, and the next, that there is an army of 6 million informal wage earners, that they do not enter the parities nor can they access the benefits of the conventioneers.
The list continues with salaries that come from retreat to retreat, with a complete-complete unemployment rate that passes the 10.2% indicated by the INDEC figures and advances straight towards a point that defines this dislocated labor structure.
It shows that private consumption, decisive in the Argentine economy, It falls 7% against 2019 and no less than 17% compared to 2018.
The problem, in any case, is that no matter how hard Kirchnerism puts the blame on Macri and Macrismo, that remains further and further away and especially when he leaves for two years in government.