The weather will remain autumnal and unsettled over the weekend and will continue like this at the start of next week, when we will have entered the meteorological autumn, which begins on Sunday 1st September – the astronomical autumn will not begin until the 22nd at 2.44pm Spanish peninsular time. Thus, according to the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) in the latest update of its information notemore showers and storms are expected on Friday, mainly in the northern half of the peninsula and without ruling out that they may extend to the southeastern quadrant of the peninsula, but less intense than those on Thursday. On Saturday, these showers will be more likely in the northern half of the peninsula and, on Sunday, in the northeastern quadrant. On Monday, the fifth day of stormy water, with more showers and more storms, more likely in the north.
On Thursday, the worst day of the episode, at 26 stations in the Aemet network in Cantabria, Aragon, the Basque Country, Navarre, La Rioja and Castilla-León 30 liters or more fell in 24 hours. “The top five is occupied by Tama, in Cantabria, with 66.8 litres fallen in two major episodes; Panticosa, in Huesca, with 66.4; Aguarain/Salvatierra, in Álava, with 57.8; and Sariñena, in Huesca, with 54.4″, details the spokesman for Aemet José Luis Camacho. Much of this water fell suddenly: 48 litres in one hour in Sariñena (Huesca), 47 litres in Muniesa (Teruel) and 42.9 in Torla (Huesca). The maximum temperatures suffered a significant drop, with only 14 stations exceeding the level of 35 degrees, while “the wind records also provided exceptional data”, with gusts of up to 100 kilometres per hour in Ainsa, in the Sobrarbe of Huesca.
The forecast, day by day
This Friday, the trough – a tongue of cold air in the upper layers of the troposphere – that began to affect Spain late on Wednesday will move east. At the same time, another trough will arrive from the Atlantic and a link between the two will occur, closing an isolated cyclonic circulation at high levels (dana) with its centre north of Galicia. “The circulation is less intense than the previous day and the situation of greatest instability will correspond to the northern half of the peninsula with a lot of cloudiness throughout the day,” explains Camacho.
Early in the morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in the centre and north, which will cease from south to north and may be locally strong in central and inland areas of the northeast, with a special focus on the edges of the northern plateau and surrounding mountain ranges, including Madrid and Guadalajara, the Cantabrian and northern Iberian mountain ranges. These showers may be accompanied by thunderstorms and hail and, in areas close to the Mediterranean, mud.
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In the Cantabrian area, light rainfall is not ruled out, although locally moderate. On the Mediterranean coast, there will be a progressive increase in haze and cloudiness with easterly winds that will give rise to a feeling of sultry weather. There will be no rain in the Balearic Islands and, in the Canary Islands, there will be rainfall in the more mountainous islands. Temperatures, which were cool for the time of year on Thursday, will “recover slightly”. They will only fall in the northern and eastern thirds and in the Canary Islands and will rise in the rest, markedly in the centre and south of the Peninsula. Minimum temperatures will rise in the Balearic Islands and the Cantabrian Sea and will fall slightly in the rest.
On the warning map, 10 communities remain on alert due to rainstorms or rough seas, in all cases yellow, the lowest level on a three-point scale. This applies to Andalusia, Aragon, Asturias, Cantabria, Castile and Leon, Castile-La Mancha, the Community of Madrid, Navarre, the Basque Country and La Rioja.
Over the weekend, the most likely scenario is that “the storm will move towards the British Isles, with showers and storms continuing, more likely and intense in the northern half of the peninsula on Saturday and in the northeastern quadrant on Sunday.” As storms are the most complex phenomena to predict, Aemet insists that “there is greater uncertainty, so other areas could also be affected.”
As for the notices, On Saturday they are in yellow seven communities: Aragon, Asturias, Cantabria, Castile and Leon, Castile-La Mancha, Basque Country and La Rioja. On that day, temperatures will rise in the northern and eastern thirds of the peninsula and in the midlands of the Canary Islands, and there will be rather slight increases in the Balearic Islands. However, they will fall in a good part of the western half. The maximum will be 35 degrees in the Guadalquivir valley. There are no active warnings on Sunday.
Next week will start with rain. On Monday, Spain is expected to be “under the influence of a low pressure area located south of Ireland”, so showers and storms will continue for another day, which will be five days, more likely in the north. “There is a lot of uncertainty about their position and movement”, reiterates Aemet.
September is here with rain in many places and temperatures below normal in the northern half, while they will be higher in parts of the south and east. How will the weather evolve afterwards?
Prediction for the next three weeks 👉https://t.co/oyuaWeqsLy
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) August 30, 2024
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