The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr (72 seats in parliament), arrived in the capital, Baghdad, on Wednesday evening, with the aim of meeting the leaders of the coordination framework, but he returned to Najaf province without achieving any goal behind him due to the deepening differences between the two sides.
The elections held in Iraq produced two Shiite camps; The first is led by al-Sadr and the other is headed by al-Amiri and al-Maliki, where al-Sadr aims to form a government that excludes al-Maliki and some other forces within what is known as the “coordinating framework.”
Three scenarios are emerging for the formation of the next government, especially in light of the political impasse, following Al-Sadr’s refusal to include Maliki in the government and Hadi Al-Amiri’s confusion in joining Al-Sadr or staying within the coordination framework.
majority government
The expert on Iraqi affairs, Ali Al-Baydar, believes that “all expectations, even political behaviors and dialogues, point to proceeding with the formation of a national majority government or even a national government on the terms of the political majority, and this in itself is enough to tame and contain many tense parties and positions, especially that Iraq is going through major transformations. “.
Al-Baydar added, in a statement to “Sky News Arabia”, that “Iraq needs a majority government to be in harmony with the transformations taking place in the region and to prepare for new experiences to reform the economic, security and political sector.”
Al-Sadr, whose bloc led the results of the recent early parliamentary elections, is seeking to break the prevailing political norm in Iraq of “quotas” and form a “national majority” government that faces rejection from other Shiite forces that have powerful armed arms in the country.
Al-Sadr was able to conclude understandings with the Taqaddam Alliance (the largest Sunni alliance), as well as the Kurdistan Democratic Party, as this alliance aims to obtain the three presidencies (the republic, the ministers, and the parliament).
This agreement was able to pass the first deal, with the inauguration of Muhammad al-Halbousi, Speaker of Parliament, for a second term.
Expanded consensus government
This scenario is based on the possibility of some of the coordinating framework forces joining the ranks of al-Sadr. Such as Hadi Al-Amri, Ammar Al-Hakim, Haider Al-Abadi and others.
Al-Sadr said in a previous comment, “We are proceeding with the formation of a national majority government, and our door is still open to those we still think well of.”
He continued, “Everyone will remain our brothers, even if they adopt opposition or boycott, as long as they seek reform and Iraq’s prestige is working.”
Observers believe that al-Sadr does not want to proceed with a majority government that includes Sunni and Kurdish blocs, without involving the rest of the Shiite blocs, but at the same time he aims to exclude al-Maliki from this government because of the entrenched hostility between the two parties.
Here, analyst Ali Al-Baydar says, “The middle option may come from some sides of the frame and jump in the chest ship to obtain privileges and avoid the idea of holding them accountable. Perhaps they will find protection under the wing of the chest, and perhaps this scenario is closest to reality.”
The chest is in opposition
Al-Sadr announced his readiness to go to the opposition if the coordinating framework forces were able to form the government and concluded understandings with the Sunni and Kurdish blocs, a scenario that may come as a surprise, but circles close to Al-Sadr rule out that this will happen because of the internal and regional situation that produced the current equation.
A member of the Sadrist movement said that “the movement’s going to the opposition is not new, as it has practiced that opposition for several years, and has previous experiences in this path, and is not disdainful or ashamed of exercising this role, as some other forces do.”
The leader, who declined to be named, added to “Sky News Arabia”, that “everything in politics is contained in it, but we have to look at the internal and external variables, which do not allow anything other than that equation taking place at the present time. Rather, there is a general popular opinion, which helps to form a government of the national majority, and if the framework forces are able to achieve that step, the current is ready to go towards the opposition.”