Distributors forecast record numbers as customers have advanced Christmas purchases due to the supply crisis
On ‘Black Friday’, that American tradition of great discounts prior to the start of the Christmas campaign that takes place around the last weekend of November, heats up engines in Spain for an atypical edition. Experts expect an avalanche of purchases in the coming days that, paradoxically, will coincide with a season of minimal sales.
Surveys of portals such as Idealo or Milanuncios confirm that almost half of the population plans to buy some type of product during these days. An outlay of around 250 euros per person is expected, a figure still far from the 600 that he hopes to spend at Christmas but not negligible for an inherited custom that a few years ago was unknown in the country.
A large part of those who bet to buy in this period do so motivated by the supply crisis. In addition, the forced savings that families have accumulated during the pandemic, and which the Government estimates at about 50,000 million euros, is the great hope for the definitive reactivation of consumption, with an increase in demand for all kinds of products and services which, however, cannot always be covered.
Although Spain and the West in general have high vaccination rates that have made it possible to channel the pandemic, in less developed countries the process is more delayed and stoppages in factories prevent the supply of key chips for all technology to raw materials such as plastic. wood or steel.
This situation will imply problems in certain items, which will arrive by the drop of a hat and, therefore, many advance their purchases so as not to run out of them. Leandro Real, associate director of Turnaround, Transformation & Working Capital of KPMG in Spain, admits that there will not be a generalized shortage, “but there may be delays or specific stock breaks”.
The best example is video game consoles, one of the most typical gifts at this time that will not be able to be bought without reservation since giants like Sony or Nintendo itself have already warned that the supply will be low. 15% -20% of the total units will be missing to cover the demand. And this problem is going to be the reason that this season of discounts barely presents sales. Enrique Porta, partner responsible for Consumption and Distribution of KPMG in Spain, recalls that at the beginning of this purchasing period “aggressive promotions are usually carried out to activate consumption and clean up excess’ stock”, but this year it may not be the case ».
A thesis to which Packlink is added, the startup specialized in logistics solutions and whose managers admit that there are even “certain campaigns against discounts” and more in a context in which bringing or manufacturing the products is more expensive due to the cap in the world trade and the boom in shipping prices.
From the Open University of Catalonia they are even more blunt and affirm that we will not have “the same variety of products or discounts” and warn that prices may rise. This is also evidenced by companies to the point that technological giants such as Lenovo, used to reducing the price of their products, have warned that customers will not find discounts for the few stocks.
But this contradiction does not seem that it is going to tarnish much the next days. It is believed that the consumer will continue to consume, both now and at Christmas with or without offers. And if a certain good is not found, it will be replaced by another. The season will undoubtedly be better than 2020.
Boost to employment
This increase in sales will involve hiring. According to the specialized firm Randstad, 43,200 jobs will be generated, which represents 50% more than during the same period in 2020. Seven out of ten of these new jobs will be generated within the logistics sector, the great beneficiary of the boom starring the internet.