Will the debate about the corona crisis next week still be about 2G, and not about a new lockdown?
The number of positive tests is increasing rapidly, over 20,000 per day have been reported in recent days. On Wednesday, RIVM reported a record 20,829 positive tests. The cabinet hoped to stop the rapid increase by “cutting the virus in a targeted manner” without closing sectors, by expanding the corona ticket.
But the corona pass, also with a stricter 2G policy, is especially effective if there are few infections. A vaccinated person also has a real chance of becoming infected. If many people are infected, more contagious people also slip through the corona pass system. The chance of an event in which a lot of people become infected at once then becomes a lot greater. In short: before the corona pass can make a significant contribution, the infection rate must be reduced significantly. Whether the corona pass then becomes stricter by refusing, for example, tested people does not matter much: such a tightening will not be able to precipitate a high wave of contamination.
Sending for infections
Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) therefore stated in the parliamentary debate on Tuesday that Saturday’s measures should provide a “blow” to the virus. That is not possible with the corona admission ticket, Rutte said, but it can be used as a ‘pilot flame’ that prevents fires from ‘flaring up’ again if the number of infections has fallen. Rutte suggested that the 3G system, which had been used until now, was not yet working enough. After all, the number of infections has increased since its widespread use. Therefore, it needs to be “strengthened” with the deployment of 2G.
Earlier this week, Minister Hugo de Jonge took ‘lockdown-like’ measures into account
But the question is whether the number of infections can actually be brought to manageable proportions in the foreseeable future. In principle, it takes two weeks after the introduction of the measures before the effect is reflected in the figures, so they are now rising for a while. Even if the reproduction number, which represents how many people an infected person infects on average, is well below 1, it takes about two months for the infection rate to return to the level of mid-September. On Tuesday, outgoing minister Hugo de Jonge (Public Health, CDA) took into account that “lockdown-like measures” – such as closing sectors – are needed due to the high infection pressure.
Also read: Big doubts in Room about 2G. Parties fear polarization and ‘muddling through’
This presents the cabinet with a dilemma that has been going on since the start of the corona crisis. Isn’t it better to ‘steer’ on infections than on hospital admissions, as is happening now? The goal that the cabinet has set does not include a low number of infections. A rising number of infections is seen as an ‘indicator’ that the number of hospital admissions may also rise, but not in itself a reason to intervene.
This means that government policy sometimes does not fit together. A high virus circulation is not seen as a problem in itself, while measures are taken that only work optimally if the number of infections is as low as possible.
That already happened last summer. Then a plan was ready to prevent a high autumn wave that could only work with a low number of infections. There would be massive testing in neighborhoods where new fires arose, also among people without complaints, and an army of source and contact investigators would warn potential infected persons.
The rack at the GGD is also gone. In recent days, almost 100,000 test appointments were made
But it never came to pass. The plan could only work if the number of positive tests fell to a low point, so that the GGD could free up enough capacity. After the wave of contamination in July, the number of positive tests remained much too high to start the approach at all.
Tight test capacity
The high number of infections is also a problem for another reason: the time at the GGD is gone. In recent days, 100,000 test appointments were made, more than the GGD can handle. The question is whether enough staff can be recruited to further scale up. The source and contact investigation can no longer be fully performed for weeks. Testing and source and contact investigations are seen as two of the most effective measures. If this cannot be fully implemented, even stricter measures will be needed to stop the wave of contamination, OMT chairman Jaap van Dissel said in the House of Representatives on Monday.
Nevertheless, the cabinet hopes to be able to introduce 2G at the beginning of December. De Jonge announced on Monday that he would send the bill to the House.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC in the morning of November 18, 2021
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