1. After the fall of the Soviet Union, how have relations between Ukraine and Russia developed?
When the USSR was officially dissolved in 1991, the countries that comprised it chose to be independent states. Ukraine – one of the most industrialized, a large agricultural pantry and a repository of thousands of nuclear warheads – then decided, through a referendum, to declare its sovereignty. From that decision, relations between Ukraine and Russia have fluctuated between cordiality, hostility and high tensionsespecially after Ukraine announced its intention to move closer to the European Union (EU).
But inside Ukraine there was an obstacle: a large part of the population of this country has a strong ties with Russia, in fact, Russian is their main language. Hence, the Ukrainian dilemma of approaching the West, forming part of the EU, or remaining under the protection of Moscow caused an internal division that Putin has been able to capitalize on so as not to let escape a territory that he considers an “inalienable part” of Russian history. .
2. What is the main background for this crisis?
In 2014, the Ukrainian government, led by Viktor Yanukovych and close to Russia, was deposed after refusing to sign an agreement approved by Parliament for Ukraine to associate with the EU.
The south-eastern regions, porrusas, protested and declared themselves against the Kiev government. Plans for Ukraine to join NATO were taken up by the new government, an intention that is a threat to Russia.
3. What happened after the overthrow of the pro-Russian Ukrainian government?
With a divided Ukraine, France and Germany offered themselves as guarantors, with the prior agreement of Ukraine and Russia, of a pact to put an end to the strong dissidence that, with violence, was brewing in Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk. In 2014 the Agreement was signed in Minsk. Kiev promised to stop the offensive actions against the two rebel provinces. The agreement was not fulfilled. It did not meet with the approval of Parliament and the Ukrainians did not support it.
4. Does the breach of the Agreement
of Minsk brought consequences?
War broke out between the two rebel provinces, Donetsk and Lugansk, and the Ukraine. After almost a year of hostilities, representatives of the same countries that were at the signing of the first agreement served as guarantors, in February 2015, of a second pact, in which Kiev granted full autonomy to Donetsk and Lugansk. But he also failed. The provinces went fully into armed confrontation with the support of Russia.
5. What led Russia to annex
the Crimean peninsula?
The internal war left, according to UN figures, 14,000 dead. Parallel to the change of government in Ukraine and internal tensions, the Crimean peninsula, another separatist region, did not recognize the new government and held a referendum that approved the separation of Ukraine and its return to being part of Russia.
Later, the Russian government annexed this territory. Donetsk and Luhansk also held independence referendums.
6. Was Moscow’s pressure on Ukraine a preparation to invade?
Publicly, President Vladimir Putin has always said that Ukraine is the “historical” territory of Russia, that they are united by “blood ties”. Over the years, Russian pressure has increased and in November last year, Russia mobilized numerous troops on the border with Ukraine.
A few weeks ago, the West denounced the possible Russian invasion, preceded by Russia’s recognition of the independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
7. What was the Russian justification for the invasion?
On Thursday, February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a speech a “special military operation” in the Donbas region, which he justified with the need to pacify the conflict in the east of the country.
In his speech he added that his intention was not to occupy Ukraine, but to “demilitarize” and “denazify” the country and bring to justice those responsible for crimes.
The Russian Army launches high-precision missile strikes against Ukrainian military infrastructure, anti-aircraft defense systems, airports and armories. Russian troops try to enter Kiev.
8. What is he looking for, what is the objective of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, with the invasion of Ukraine?
Announcing the attack, Putin assured that the objective was to neutralize the possible retake by force of separatist regions by Ukraine and to protect people from “abuses and genocide” by the Ukrainian government. There is no proof of the former. And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the latter “ridiculous” at the recent Munich Security Conference.
9. What is the truth in the accusation that the Government of Ukraine commits ‘genocide’ in Donbas?
Although it is not new and the accusation has increased in the weeks prior to the invasion, the international community has no information about this alleged genocide.
The prosecution would only try to put the Kiev government in the eyes of the world as the villain, capable of the worst crimes against humanity, to justify the invasion.
10. Russia ordered an all-out attack, could there be an occupation of Ukraine?
With the actions of President Putin, it is not easy to know. Following talks with France prior to the attack, he said Russia’s intention was not to attack or invade. And after the attack, Putin said that he does not intend to occupy the country, but to “demilitarize” it.
The truth is that Moscow ordered an all-out attack on Ukraine. Analysts say it could be an attempt to expand the Donbas separatists’ territory or to establish a corridor between Donbas and Crimea.
11. Is a military intervention by Europe or the US possible?
For now it is discarded. Ukraine does not belong to NATO, it is not covered by the alliance’s mutual defense clause, and this prevents a European military deployment in that territory. For his part, President Joe Biden has been clear that he will not send troops to fight in Ukraine.
There could be help with weapons from Western countries, but this is somewhat wasteful and the speed with which the conflict is evolving is another factor to take into account.
12. Are the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West enough?
There are several courses of action. One, financial, with the aim of cutting off the access of Russian banking entities to the capital markets; another, commercial, blocking exports of cutting-edge technology. A third are personal sanctions on high-ranking representatives of the Russian regime.
However, analysts think that Russia can rely on China to supply gas and energy that it sells to Europe and this would nullify some sanctions.
13. Apart from Ukraine, what is at stake in this conflict?
At stake is the definition of the world order of the 21st century. Russia and China seek a readjustment.
The High Representative for European Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, defines the conflict as the alternative between a multilateral order supported by organizations and international law, and a multipolar one, with zones of influence, and a relativistic view of human rights. The Russian aggression against Ukraine is the central playing field in this global pulse.
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