It was a long and threatening speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday. In which he rewrote reality – making it appear that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is a fact, when it is not. In which he also suggested that Ukraine has never been a real country and it isn’t now – as if conquering a non-existent country is less of a problem.
There is some truth in the Russian president saying that the Ukrainians have tapped Russian gas in the past. Anyway, in Europe a thief is not cut off. Theft should never be a casus belli.
More importantly, the speech laid the ideological foundation for possible further military action, with the signing of a “mutual assistance” treaty with the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Hours after Russia recognized the independence of those constituent republics, military vehicles also entered eastern Ukraine. The question is whether it will remain with the recognition of those two federal states. What if it is a prelude to an even deeper foray into Ukraine? As usual, Putin manages to sow doubts about his intentions.
Or, if and if are the key words, as has been the case for weeks. Every step Putin takes leads to the question: does it stop there? Every step is just not enough for politicians, for generals, for investors to take firm action. They are actually the “minor incursions”, to which US President Biden said in January he did not know exactly how the US should respond.
Last week, the West thought recognition of the constituent republics was a step too far. Now it would be military activities that could be grounds for much harsher sanctions for the West than what is now being discussed. A tank on someone else’s territory should be reason enough. Because in the meantime there are 190,000 Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine and it makes little sense to let them stay there for a long time. Withdraw or push forward are Putin’s two options.
It is important that the West takes the initiative – this undeniable escalation must not go unanswered. The fact that German Chancellor Scholz indefinitely suspended Nord Stream 2, the pipeline that should eventually supply Europe with Russian gas, is a clear recognition of the new relations.
British Prime Minister Johnson put his words into action and started the “barrage of sanctions” by freezing the assets of five Russian banks and three oligarchs. The EU is restricting Russia’s access to European financial markets and restricting trade with Donetsk and Luhansk.
They are small, reactive steps. It is true that mutual dependence – particularly in the gas field – has been exchanged for realism. However, to take the initiative, the EU could also consider sanctions anticipating future Russian actions. Such as denying access to the SWIFT network, with which banks pay each other worldwide.
The fear of military intervention is understandably great in Europe. The language of sanctions suits the EU better, and if they are strong enough, they can also work as a continuation of diplomacy by other means. They just must not become a fig leaf for impotence.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 23, 2022
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