Russia has so many troops around Ukraine that it has several options. If the war of conquest of eastern Ukraine begins, the goal is almost certainly at least the Dnieper River.
Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered soldiers to eastern Ukraine late Monday night. He claimed the soldiers were “peacekeepers”.
For example, the person in charge of EU foreign affairs Josep Borrell announced on Twitterthat this is already Russia’s new attack on Ukraine.
Until how long does Russia intend to continue? It has denied Western claims of plans to conquer Ukraine, but at the same time it has now invaded eastern Ukraine and mobilized troops of up to 190,000 troops near Ukraine’s northern, eastern and southern borders.
According to Western experts, there are enough troops and equipment for the full conquest of Ukraine.
The troops are grouped so that Russia has several different options for waging a possible large-scale war of conquest.
In Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyzed in Januarythat Russia has at least three possible axes of progress to Ukraine.
Chief Lecturer, Department of Military Arts, National Defense College, Lieutenant Colonel Jarmo Mattila considers the analysis to remain valid.
In the north, Russia could attack Kiev from both its own territory and at the same time try to hook up Ukraine’s defenses from Belarus, which has an estimated 30,000 Russian troops in the wake of military exercises.
“The terrain is not advantageous for the attacker from the north, but light troops can get to Kiev from there. In any case, Kiev would tie up so many Russian troops that there is a risk of attacking them, ”says Mattila.
Read more: The United States considers Russia’s invasion of Kiev likely, but “You can’t just walk to Kiev,” says director of the Department of Military Defense
But if Kiev is to be isolated or controlled, this direction should also be used, he continues.
From the East again, it could attack on Monday from the direction of the “people’s republics” recognized by Russia as independent. Russia already sent troops to these separatist areas the night before Tuesday.
It is not known whether the troops also intend to cross the current line of contact between the Ukrainian army and the separatists and move to the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
“The operation has been going on for a long time. Now the next step has just begun to take over the area in the name of peacekeeping. If necessary, the area is a step board to continue, ”says Mattila.
“Now they look at how the West is reacting to this. Certainly they have several options that have been considered. It can also be such a slow draw. ”
Russian and Belarusian tanks in a joint exercise near Brest, Belarus, last weekend. The photo is taken from a video published by the Belarussian authorities.
The direction of the East’s attack would be awkward, he said, at least because the journey would be long, so the service connection would also be long.
“If you come from there with a big attack, then the Dnieper River is definitely a target to be taken.”
He believes that the landing forces would have a role to play, as they could, for example, take over bridges intact.
From the south Russia, in turn, could attack through the Perekopinkas. The family base connects the Crimean peninsula to the mainland. Russia illegally seized and annexed Crimea in 2014.
Mattila believes that one goal to the south could be to create a land connection to Crimea, which would mean taking over Mariupol, for example.
In any case, isolating Ukraine from the Black Sea on both sides of the Crimea would mean a bigger operation and also possibly a landing. Russia has accumulated navy and Marines in the Black Sea.
A hailstorm will also begin in Ukraine in March, making it much more difficult, if not partially, to prevent large-scale movements.
“I don’t know the depth of frost there, but the ground is soft and it’s starting to sink quickly. The snowstorm will continue until the end of April, but surprisingly at least the armor will go even in soft terrain, ”says Mattila.
“It’s hard to say in which direction there are steady forces about the focus of a possible attack. With the landing forces, it can be formed into something. ”
CSIS: n the analysis identified six different possible military options for future events based on the political goals of Russia’s statements. In reality, Russia has more options, but these are being analyzed by CSIS.
The first option, withdrawing troops at least temporarily, is already gone.
At present, Russia has almost exactly two in the CSIS option, ie it has unilaterally sent “peacekeepers” to the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine.
In the third option, Russia would start a full-scale war of conquest and continue all the way to the Dnieper River. Russia would then use Ukraine on the eastern side of the Dnieper as a bargaining chip or include it.
In the fourth option, Russia would conquer areas both up to the Dnieper and the western Black Sea coast of Crimea, where the city of Odessa, among others, is located. At the same time, Russia would have a land route to Moldova’s separatist region of Transnistria, which also has Russian troops. At the same time, Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea would be completely blocked.
In the fifth option, Russia would attack the entire Ukrainian coast from the separatist regions of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, but would avoid the big and probably very difficult battles for Russia itself in Kiev (three million inhabitants) and Kharkov (1.5 million inhabitants). In that case, Russia would have a land route to Crimea and Transnistria and Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea would be blocked.
The sixth option in the CSIS analysis is the conquest of the whole of Ukraine. It would first begin with an attack on the Dnieper and the conquest of Kiev, followed by the conquest of western Ukraine.
However, western Ukraine is the most nationalist region in Ukraine, and Russia would probably have to keep occupying forces in the region for years and prepare for guerrilla warfare.
Everyone except the Coastal Conquest War uses the Ukrainian railways for the benefit of the CSIS analysis. According to the CSIS, this is very likely in a possible war of conquest, as the logistics of the Russian army in the large-scale land war are not designed to operate far from the railways. Therefore, for example, the conquest of Kharkov before further invasion of Ukraine is almost mandatory, according to CSIS. Kharkiv is a major automotive and railway hub.
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