According to U.S. intelligence sources, the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, could collapse in just 48 hours if it were subjected to a full ground and air attack.
Russia has significantly increased its military strength on the Ukrainian border in recent months. Russia has now mobilized about 70 percent of the troops it would need for a major attack, news agency AP and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) based on U.S. intelligence sources.
Sources have not revealed to the media on what evidence the ratings are based.
As late as December, there were 53 battalion combat units near the borderthere were 60 last month. At present, there are already 83. The strength of each unit is about 800 soldiers.
As a result, there would now be thousands, even 20,000, more Russian soldiers than at the end of last year.
Information The number of Russian troops has varied. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russia would have 115,000 troops “near the borders of Ukraine”. The amount to start a large-scale frontal war would be small.
Previously this week the United States announced, it no longer considers the threat of a major attack immediate. According to the US administration, the president Vladimir Putin would not yet have made a decision as to whether or not to attack. Also diplomatic solution considered possible.
Russia has denied plans to invade Ukraine.
Intelligence according to Kiev would collapse in an estimated 48 hours in a full-scale ground and air attack.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky the chancellery said on sunday that uk considers a diplomatic solution more likely than an escalation. Zelenskyi has also considered the possibility of an attack on the capital exaggerated.
However, if Russia continues to increase its forces and try to take over the entire country, intelligence estimates that between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians would be killed or wounded. The number of victims would depend, for example, on how many battles would be fought in urban areas.
About 1,000 to 3,000 Russian soldiers would be killed or wounded in the attack, compared to an estimated 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
One million to five million Ukrainians would have to flee, which would cause refugee flows, especially to Poland.
According to intelligence sources, it would be most profitable for Russia to attack between mid-February and the end of March in terms of weather conditions. The ground is then in hard ice, which would make it easier to move heavy equipment.
United States has sent 3,000 troops to Poland and Romania to support the eastern periphery of NATO. The first troops arrived on Saturday. On Sunday, the arrival of reinforcement forces in Poland was announced.
Polish Minister of Defense Mariusz Blaszczakin about 1,700 U.S. troops will be stationed on the country’s southeastern border.
Security Adviser to the President of the United States Jake Sullivan commented on the troop transfer on Sunday, saying the United States would not send troops to Europe to start a war in Ukraine against Russia, AFP says.
“We have sent troops to Europe to defend the NATO area,” Sullivan says.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday Germany was ready to send more troops to the Baltic countries.
“We are ready to do anything to strengthen (Germany’s presence in NATO operations in the Baltics),” Scholz said in an interview with German broadcaster ARD.
Germany leads the military operations of NATO in Lithuania, where it has about 500 troops.
In his interview, Scholz maintained that Germany would not send weapons to Ukraine.
“For several years, the German government has had a clear policy of not supplying crisis areas (weapons) and therefore not supplying deadly weapons to Ukraine.”
Scholz was also asked if the United States sees Germany as NATO’s weakest link.
“That’s a misconception that isn’t prevalent in the United States either,” he replied.
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