“It will be a race that will present risks and opportunities”. Christian Horner gives a hint of a smile, and in a world championship that increasingly resembles a game of chess, the hunt for a potential surprise move is immediately triggered.
“The starting position will be crucial in view of Sunday’s race, as on all street circuits,” concludes Horner. Looking at the work schedule that Mercedes and Red Bull completed yesterday, there was a substantial difference.
In the first session Verstappen covered twelve laps with hard tires, which were in fact a long qualifying simulation with the alternation of a launched lap with a cool-down to cool the tires and recharge the hybrid.
Also in the FP2 session, Max tried several sprint laps, to the point that his track engineer called him back to the pits via radio to start the race simulation.
“Let me give it another try – was the Dutchman’s reply – the long-run interests me less”.
There were only four laps of Verstappen with petrol on board (also due to Leclerc’s departure from the track who brought the checkered flag of FP2 forward by five minutes) and the results were not exciting. Max’s lap average was over a second slower than Hamilton’s (using both medium tires) but the figure did not trigger any alarm in the Red Bull garage.
The clues lead us to think what Red Bull dynamics had already suggested in Qatar, namely that the team’s engineers are giving absolute priority to single-lap performance in order to get Max as far forward as possible on the starting grid.
In the Verstappen garage they know that if Hamilton manages to parade as a leader at the first corner, overcoming him on the track (net of unexpected events) will be very difficult. For this reason, efforts have been directed towards hunting the front row, sacrificing also the long-runs. It was Losail’s plan (which later failed due to the penalty that Verstappen had to serve on the starting grid), which also led to the renunciation of the use of a new power unit.
In Losail, and also yesterday in Jeddah, Verstappen confirmed his competitive position in terms of top speed, limiting the top-speed gap with Hamilton to 4 km / h. A margin that in the race would not allow Lewis to easily overtake Red Bull if the Mercedes driver were in second position, despite having a much faster pace.
In spite of the high average speed, the layout of Jeddah at the moment ensures only a certain overtaking point (the braking of corner 1) while on the braking of the 27 according to many drivers it is necessary to close the maneuver keeping the internal trajectory before facing the curve. Changing lines means going on dirt (especially sand) and risking losing grip, a risk that no one will want to take tomorrow in the 50 laps of the race.
It is probably no coincidence that Hamilton complained yesterday about the performance in the qualifying simulation despite finishing the day in first position.
Every move of the opponent is analyzed in detail, and the impression that Verstappen will play everything in today’s qualifying is concrete. Both the engineers at the wall and those who work in the remote garages will be called to overtime to find the exact moment to get out of the pits without the traffic nightmare, then the word will pass to drivers and tires.
With twenty races behind them, the final sprint is confirming itself as an all-out confrontation, and even if in Mercedes they believe they have a small margin in their favor, they fear the surprise blow that would change the perspective in view of the race and, to this point of the season, including the World Cup.
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