The European Union has sent its new heavyweights in the European Council and its diplomacy to kyiv with promises of multimillion-dollar aid for Ukraine. The German chancellor has also arrived, Olaf Scholzwith more support and more rhetoric. However, Brussels’ renewed commitment to arming the Ukrainian army is overshadowed by the announcement of the Kremlin that it will multiply its defense spending by 24.4% in 2025.
In 2023, Russia launched an authentic war economy to support its invasion of Ukraine and, although in the future it will be a very difficult burden to sustain and will put the country in debt for decades, for the moment it serves to surpass kyiv militarily and take positions in the face of an eventual negotiation of a ceasefire.
The view from Brussels is not very rosy: the steps taken by the EU to pay for the war will not reach the minimum required if USA finally withdraws its military aid when Donald Trump assumes the presidency of this country in January, as he has indicated on several occasions.
The EU wants Ukraine to win the war… but it can’t
The rhetoric used in kyiv this Sunday by the new highest representative of European diplomacy is of little use, Kaja Kallaswho insisted that “the EU wants Ukraine to win this war” and Brussels will do “whatever is necessary to achieve it.”
This bet seems difficult if you take into account what is happening on the battle front. In November, the Russian army advanced more than 725 square kilometers on Ukrainian territory, in its largest occupation of territory since the beginning of the conflagration, especially in eastern Ukraine, according to the American Institute for the Study of War.
November also saw some of the most devastating Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power and power grid, predicting severe hardship for the population this winter.
But this complicated situation does not prevent European leaders from continuing to think that the only way to winning peace is through waralthough at the moment Ukraine is losing it.
Kallas traveled to kyiv together with the new president of the European Council, António Costa, who promised Ukraine 4.2 billion euros until the end of this year and 1.5 billion monthly more throughout 2025, coming from the interests of Russian capital affected by the sanctions imposed by Europe after the invasion. There are nearly 47 billion euros coming from those Russian assets blocked.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr ZelenskyHe said, on the occasion of the visit of the two European leaders, that one billion euros from those frozen Russian assets will be used for the Ukrainian defense industry. Another good allocation, still undetermined, will be to buy weapons, but the majority of the European contribution will be to guarantee the survival of the Ukrainian state.
These figures, in any case, cannot compete with the new Russian defense budget. The military departure also demonstrates that the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia have not done the damage to the Russian economy that was expected and that Moscow can even fight battles in other scenarios, as is now happening in Syria in support of the regime. of the dictator Bashar al-Assad against the Islamist rebels.
Russian military spending grows 24.4%
This Sunday, the Russian president, Vladimir Putinpromulgated the state budget for the three-year period 2025-2027, which allocates defense spending of 13.5 trillion rubles, i.e. about 126,844 million euros only for next year. It is 24.4% more than the 2024 budget, with most of the items going to maintain the war effort in Ukraine.
The amount of the Russian budget allocated to defense and national security represents close to 40% of total expenditure and exceeds the sum of the items dedicated to social policies, health, education and economy. In statements collected by the EFE agency, Guntram Wolffan expert from the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, explained that Russia is capable of manufacturing the entire German weapons arsenal in six months.
USA Earrings
To get closer to the Russian war effort in Ukraine, the EU would have to sacrifice much of its social policies. At this time, that departure can only be assumed by the United States, whose new president, Donald Trump, will be installed in power on January 20 amid uncertainty about his promise to end that war in 24 hours.
The EU knows what it can and cannot give to Ukraine. Even more so when the threats derived from Western support for Ukraine, such as the authorization to use long range missiles against Russian territory, have been responded to with hypersonic missiles capable of reaching Ukrainian power centers or by putting on the table the eventual use of nuclear weapons.
On November 19, Putin ratified the new Russian nuclear doctrine that offers many more response options even against conventional attacks on the Russian Federation. This Saturday, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Riabkov, was clear: “Unfortunately, this risk (of nuclear war) exists” and “it is not propaganda, but a harsh reality that must be accepted.”
Faced with a real risk of such an evolution of the war, the words of the new president of the European Council in kyiv remain stuck in pure rhetoric. “We will help you as long as necessary”said Costa.
The carrot of EU membership
Costa also referred to the negotiation process for Ukraine’s entry into the EU. “The progress is impressive. “Ukraine is writing a new script on how to make deep reforms while fighting for survival,” said the President of the European Council.
A declaration full of good will but little in line with the terrible situation of a country at war, with its infrastructure destroyed, full of weapons that could end up on the European black market once the conflict is over and with levels of corruption that the conflict has triggered.
Costa’s words are as far from reality as the demand to join NATO that Zelensky reiterated last week, asking that the Alliance cover with its military umbrella at least the part of Ukraine not conquered by Russia.
The president of the European Commission herself, Ursula von der Leyenhas already made it clear that kyiv’s wishes to enter the EU in 2026 will not be fulfilled and suggested looking to the end of this decade at the earliest.
Among the European countries that have most supported Ukraine against Russia, but that are also most distrustful of this hasty entry into the EU, is Germany. Its chancellor visited kyiv this Monday on his second trip to the invaded country, after the one he made in June 2022. Scholz With this visit, he removed the thorn of having called Putin by phone last month, an action that was considered almost a betrayal by Zelensky.
A new German weapons package
In kyiv, Scholz promised a new military aid package worth 650 million euros, including IRIS-T air-to-air missiles, Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers and Gepard battle tanks, all to be delivered before the end of the year.
Germany is the European country that has sent the most money and weapons to Ukraine, nearly 18 billion euros since the conflict began. Despite this, Zelensky this Monday asked Scholz for a greater effort and reminded him that Germany has not supplied Ukraine Taurus cruise missiles long-range, capable of hitting targets 500 kilometers away.
Zelensky, who also reprimanded Scholz for his call to Putin, stressed that the only thing kyiv needs is more weapons. “We can only guarantee peace through strength: the strength of our weapons, our diplomacy and our cooperation,” said the Ukrainian leader at a joint press conference with the German chancellor.
Also asking Scholz for more military effort in Ukraine was Armin Papperberger, CEO of the German arms consortium Rheinmetall. The arms manufacturer demanded that Ukraine be delivered an additional arms package, at least 10 billion eurosbefore the early elections are held in Germany on February 23, when a political earthquake could put the German contribution to the war under the microscope.
The arms race that is coming in Europe
Papperberger urged the German Government to invest more in defense, and especially in ammunition production, given what may happen with Trump’s rise to power and the possible reduction of the United States’ contribution not only in Ukraine but also to NATO. in Europe. According to the weapons manufacturer, investments of between 350,000 and 400,000 million euros to put the German armed forces in adequate condition.
That is to say, it would be necessary to almost quadruple the announced 100,000 million euros that the German Government budgeted at the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to modernize and better arm the German army, a figure that even then seemed crazy.
If the entire European defense system is considered, no less than 690,000 million euros to nourish the military security of the old continent.
But if we also consider the need to establish a nuclear security system for EU countries outside of NATO, in case Trump decided to dismantle this defensive bloc or leave it at a minimum, then it is easy to understand that, No matter how much Russia threatened European borders, Europe could not meet that challenge, neither militarily nor economically.
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