For fans of complex football draws, the combination of the Nations League final and the upcoming qualification for an enlarged World Cup in 2026 creates a special gem. As of now, Germany does not yet know a single opponent for the coming international match year – and who they will be will first have to be determined in a complicated process.
What’s next?
The quarter-finals of the Nations League will be drawn on Friday. Germany can face Italy, Denmark or Croatia. The return matches will take place on March 20th and 23rd, 2025.
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What happens if Germany wins the quarterfinals?
The DFB team will then qualify for the final tournament, which will be held from June 4th to 8th – possibly in Germany. The Uefa Executive Committee determines a quarter-final, the winner of which gets to host the tournament because the host is supposed to take part. Since Germany has never taken part in the Nations League final tournament, it is possible that UEFA will select the German quarter-finals. Previous hosts were Portugal, Italy and the Netherlands.
What does the Nations League have to do with World Cup qualification?
In order to increase the importance of its new competition, UEFA has linked performance in the Nations League with qualification for the major tournaments. Good for the DFB team: By winning the Nations League group, they are in first place in the draw and avoid strong opponents like France or Spain in the World Cup qualification. This is important because only the first place in the table qualifies directly for the tournament in the USA, Mexico and Canada. There are twelve groups with four or five teams each, and 16 European teams receive a World Cup ticket. The four remaining places will be played by the twelve runners-up in the group with the four best teams in the Nations League that did not come first or second in a World Cup qualifying group in playoff mode (semi-finals, finals). A constellation is even conceivable in which the newly crowned Nations League promoted team San Marino could be just two wins away from qualifying for the World Cup.
Will Germany get a group of four or five?
That depends on whether Germany wins the Nations League quarter-finals and takes part in the final tournament. If so, Julian Nagelsmann’s team has to play in a group of four, otherwise there won’t be enough dates left in the international match calendar. If the DFB team loses the quarter-finals, it will be a group of five. This leads to the strange situation that the groups have not yet been finally determined on the first matchday of the World Cup qualification on March 21st. Uefa will draw wildcards in the draw on December 13th that will say “winner quarter-final one” or something similar. Who Germany will play against in 2025 will only be finally determined with the Nations League quarter-final second leg on March 23, 2025.
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