Mexico has not complied with its environmental commitments and has a tough challenge before COP 29

From November 11 to 22, the United Nations Climate Change Conference will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan (COP 29). The main objective is to seek strategies so that the member countries of the UNFCCC (English acronym for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) can achieve their goals established in the Paris Agreement, and that together they limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C above the average temperature of the pre-industrial era. This year, COP 29 will focus on securing financing for mitigation and adaptation of the effects of climate change and the energy transition.

Last year, at COP 28 in Dubai, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: “We are experiencing climate breakdown in real time. Without aggressive action, global warming is on track to reach almost 3°C, double the desired 1.5°C.” Some agreements reached at COP 28 had relevant impact, such as committing countries to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, as well as formalizing the Loss and Damage Fund that will provide financing for vulnerable countries affected by climate disasters. However, it also made evident alarming truths: that current actions are insufficient to reduce the carbon emissions of the most developed countries, that the calculation of the financial goal to reduce carbon emissions is inefficient, that a more realistic and adapted to the new needs and circumstances of each country, and that there is still enormous economic interest among countries in continuing to invest in fossil fuels.

Additionally, this COP 29 will seek for countries to strengthen their commitments to reduce their emissions at the national level and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are essential tools for coordinating global climate action. Ideally, each country should modify its NDCs every five years or less to make them increasingly ambitious and restrictive.

Did Mexico meet its goals for 2024?

In the famous Paris Agreement of 2016, Mexico committed to achieving a goal of minimum participation of clean methods for the generation of electrical energy of 25% by 2018, 30% by 2021 and 35% by 2024. Although , in 2021 Mexico was just 0.5 percentage points below the goal of 30% clean energy generation, PRODESEN 2024 (official document of the Ministry of Energy) indicates that at the end of 2023, the proportion was only 24.32 %, which represents an enormous difference compared to the proposed goal. This is even less than what was achieved in 2021. In other words, Mexico did not move towards meeting its goals and, in fact, went in the opposite direction.

This reduction in clean energy generation is mainly due, according to PRODESEN itself, to a significant reduction in generation in hydroelectric plants due to the drought of recent years; However, there was no greater participation of renewable sources to compensate for the increase in electricity demand. In addition, there was a brake on private investment to increase clean energy capacity compared to the previous six-year period. Mexico is supposed to have approximately 5,400 additional MW of renewable energy ready to come into operation (according to official data from the Energy Regulatory Commission), however, they have not been authorized. Thus, Mexico fell far short of compliance with its NDC, results that it will have to present at COP 29, along with the strategies to accelerate, now, the energy transition in the coming years.

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In 2022, even with the understanding that it would not be able to reach the goals proposed in 2016, the Mexican government modified its NDC, increasing its greenhouse gas generation reduction goal from 22% to 35% by 2030, which would imply an additional installed clean energy capacity of up to 40 GW, according to the 2022 NDC update report prepared by SEMARNAT and INECC. However, the statistical data have been modified as the official documentation is updated and with the change of government of President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Sheinbaum’s Strategic Energy Plan

On November 6, the president of Mexico presented a strategic plan on energy matters, where she outlined three possible scenarios to increase the participation of clean energy. An installed capacity is considered much lower than the 40 GW of the report presented in 2022:

• Scenario 1B with cogenerationaccording to which, 38% clean energy generation could be reached (approximately 8,000 MW) and a reduction in CO2 emissions of 4.5%
• Scenario 1A without cogeneration, where the aim would be to reach 36% clean energy generation (7,000 MW) and a reduction in CO2 emissions of 2.7%
• Scenario 2, high, where it would be estimated to reach a clean energy generation of 45% (13,000 MW), and a reduction in CO2 emissions of 12.7%

The Director of CFE, Emilia Calleja, argued that scenarios 1A and 1B consider processes to generate electrical energy that could support PEMEX’s production processes, and that 30% of the generation through this scheme would be considered clean energy.

Azerbaijan, the controversial “cradle of oil”, hosts COP29

In 1848 the first hydrocarbon extraction was carried out in Baku. In this edition 29^tois the epicenter of the conversation about the fossil fuel industry’s obligations in relation to climate change.

In 2023, an agreement published by the CRE (Energy Regulatory Commission) modified the methodology for calculating efficiency and allowed a part of the combined cycle generation process (which uses natural gas as the main fuel) to be considered carbon-free energy. fuel. This would have increased the percentage of clean generation in the country instantly and thus would have gotten closer to the Paris Agreement goals of clean energy generation of 35%. In short, the entry into force of this Agreement would have allowed generation using a fossil fuel (gas) to be considered as clean energy, a scheme that has not been used in any other country before. This would have distorted the incentives to incorporate greater participation of renewable energies. In addition, it would have violated the Energy Transition Law of 2015, which prohibited considering electricity generation through combined cycles as efficient cogeneration.

A judge granted a definitive suspension with general effects so that the Agreement would not be used by the CRE, thus freezing the government’s strategy that would have allowed the percentage of clean generation participation in the statistics to be increased artificially.