The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to bomb targets in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria. In the Strip, the list of targets is headed by residual Hamas groups, camouflaged in the refugee camps of Jabalia, in the north, and Maghazi and Deir el-Balah (Az Zawayda area) in the center, camps monitored by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. A complex situation that would be at the origin of the Israeli parliament’s recent veto of Unrwa, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees. In Lebanon, the preferred targets of Israeli aviation are Hezbollah’s logistics facilities on the southern outskirts of Beirut. And, in Syria, Hezbollah’s magazines and logistical facilities in the Al-Quseyr area, just 10 km from the Lebanese border. Likewise, tension is increasing in the West Bank with frequent IDF raids. In such a warlike atmosphere, Netanyahu endorsed, last Thursday, their offensive attitude with an unequivocal purpose: “to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons,” which he described as the supreme objective. This warns not only of its intention to maintain the current level of hostilities, but also of its vocation to escalate until reaching, if necessary, an open war with Iran. Whether or not to stop this potential drift will test the ability of the new tenant of the White House to avoid what would be a regional or even planetary war. Such an atmosphere was summed up last Thursday by the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who, with a certain electoral voluntarism, commented on the “good progress” of a proposal to achieve a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. A concert that would have little new since it would consist of an “effective implementation” of Resolution 1701 (2006), of the United Nations Security Council, which put an end to the 2006 war. A resolution that has never been fully implemented in the 18 years since then. The proposed roadmap now calls for silencing the guns, both by Hezbollah and the IDF, during a two-month transition period. And, likewise, during those 60 days, Hezbollah would delay its heavy weapons north of the Litani River, to move them away from the Lebanon-Israeli border, while, in addition to the already existing Finul mission, 8,000 regular troops would be deployed in that space. Lebanese. The picture would be completed with the simultaneous withdrawal of the IDF within Israeli borders. A rather naive and repetitive scenario, probably designed to induce North American voters to think that a new Democratic Administration could end the war quickly. The question is that if these measures are a copy of those included in Resolution 1701 (2006), which were never fully complied with, why should it be different now? Surely, Israel will not accept this plan without a prior guarantee from Iran not to repeat its old tricks. And, conversely, Iran will hardly accept the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon when Hezbollah’s reason for being is, precisely, to breathe Iranian breath into Israel’s neck. Related News standard Yes The ceasefire moves away from Lebanon and Gaza after a new day of harsh bombing Mikel Ayestaran One of the proposals being discussed, according to the Israeli media, would consist of releasing the female hostages along with the captive men over 50 years of age in exchange for a certain number of Palestinian prisoners. The result of Today’s elections in the US are still uncertain. It seems clear that the dispute is going to be very close. In any case, such a result will have a direct impact on the future of the Middle East conflict. Harris, in line with Biden, would presumably advocate containment and reconciliation of interests, which would explain the low profile of the Middle East conflict in her campaign. Trump, who boasts of being the most pro-Israel American president in history, will be more active in his support for Israel. For example, already during his presidency, the American embassy in Israel moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Or the Syrian Golan Heights, of undoubted strategic value and from where the sources of the Jordan are controlled, were recognized as Israeli territory. And, as a great milestone, the Abraham Accords were promoted, for the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and various Arab and North African countries. Normalization undone by the Hamas terrorist carnage of October 7, 2023.
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