November 5 is a date marked in red on the calendars of all countries in the world. Kamala Harris and donald trump They face each other in an election that, unlike what happens in almost any other country, has a direct impact on the international geopolitical chessboard. For this reason, in Europe there is a feeling of complete calm. Several progressive MEPs consulted by this means point out the danger that a Trump victory would represent, which would give wings to his long run. fan list on the continent and would have a direct effect on the conflicts of Ukraine and Palestine.
“A possible Trump victory would greatly deteriorate the relations between different regions“, he comments in conversation with Public Iratxe Garcíathe head of the socialists in the European Parliament. It emphasizes, among other things, the complexity of the current situation, “with conflicts such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East.” Among the continental left, there is concern – always taking into account the nuances of each country – that the European Union will end up finding itself in the middle of a scenario flanked by Trump, Putin, Orbán and Netanyahu.
In addition, of course, Trump’s victory would contribute to legitimizing the far-right speeches and postulates of the cohort of followers that the Republican candidate has in Europe, starting with Orbán and continuing through Geert Wildersin the Netherlands, or Herbert kicklin Austria. That is also worrying.
Regarding the effects on the Ukraine war of Trump’s eventual return to the White House, Javier Carbonellprofessor of Political Science and deputy director of the think tank Future Policy Lab, points out the following: “Part of their strategy would be cut aid to Ukraine so that it has to sit at the negotiating table and, at the same time, impose tougher sanctions against Russia for the same thing.” The agreement, also according to Carbonell, should result in “a handover from Ukraine to Russia of a part of their territory.”
“That,” he continues, “would have a tremendous impact on Europe.” Furthermore, the new Trump, which is different from the one who governed between 2017 and 2021, has a much more isolationist and would move towards delinking the United States and Europe in military termsso that it would force the European Union to greatly increase their military spendingtaking into account that the North American crutch would be in serious danger. “On the other hand,” the political scientist resolves, “if Harris wins, the EU would continue to maintain its international and military dependence on the US and could continue increasing your autonomy little by little“.
What Harris would assure, if he obtains the American baton of command, is a continuous international policy with firm economic and political support for kyiv. Something more unpredictable is the line that Trump would follow, which could put an end to all the military aid that the country governed by Volodymyr Zelensky.
Netanyahu wants Trump
The character isolationist that increasingly defines Trump is key to understanding the effect that his eventual victory could have in the Middle East conflict, since it could translate into an increase in freedom of expression. Benjamin Netanyahu to carry out his plans. The good relationship between both leaders should not be overlooked. Trump received Netanyahu in his summer house in de Mar-a-Lago (Florida) when the Israeli leader visited the United States.
For all this, the political scientist who is an expert on the extreme right Helena Castella points out that Trump’s appearance on the international stage would very possibly hinder any progress in the negotiations for a ceasefire and it goes without saying that also for some possible sanctions Netanyahu as demanded by the Spanish left-wing parties with a presence in the European Parliament. “In any case,” Castellà completes, “it must be said that the actions of the democrats regarding the conflict in Gaza nor has it been condemnatory towards Israel“.
Move to the center and right of site
A winning Trump, however, would have great implications for defense policies and international relations. All the sources consulted agree on this. Helena Castellà, in that sense, makes an observation. He explains that if the Republican candidate is president of the United States, figures like Wilders or Orbán may see their specific weight enhanced, but the real danger is “the acceptance of their hate speechof fake news or racist speeches”.
It refers to the fact that as new far-right governments appear – and the case of Donald Trump in the United States is even more important – the discourse of right-wing or even center-right parties runs the risk of becoming more and more out of line. to reactionary positions. Accepting them at the debate table is already a loss for progressivism because, as a result, the story permeates the citizens. Galan StarSumar MEP in the group of The Left in the European Parliament, underlines the ability of far-right parties to place frames on issues as important as migrations.
Castellà gives the example of Von der Leyen’s proposal, inspired by one of the Italian president Giorgia Melonireferring to the creation of migrant return centers in third countries of the European Union. It is the perfect proof, according to the political scientist, of the ease with which the speeches of the traditional right are heeled when they have to cooperate with far-right governments.
#Europe #holds #breath #face #Trump #victory #effect #conflicts #Ukraine #Palestine
