We interviewed the Catalan researcher Laia Balcells residing in the USA to analyze how the upcoming elections for the presidency of the world’s leading power are being fought, which are mainly contested by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and the democratic health of the country. The Granollerian political scientist lived since then in the State Units, a country where she worked as a Professor of Political Science and Conflict Resolution at Georgetown University (Washington DC).
Laia Balcells is Professor of Political Science and Conflict Resolution at the Georgetown University. Doctor for the prestigious Yale Universityshe has also been a professor and researcher at Duke and Princeton. He has published numerous academic articles, some of them guarded with important awards, and in 2017 he will publish the book Rivalry and Revenge: the Politics of Violence during Civil Warhow does pre-war politics connect to both Patterns of violence during civil warswith special attention to the Spanish Civil War.
In the book, the author argued that both local political rivalry and revenge play a role in violence against civilians. The work has been translated into Spanish by the International Català Institute for Pau and Edicions Bellaterra, with the title Rivalry and revenge. The politics of violence in civil wars. Balcells is kindly here in Washington DC to talk about the imminents presidential elections that will have lloc als Estats Units the proper dimarts november 5.
First of all, I would like you to explain how your day-to-day life in the capital of the United States is, while you are working.
Well, the truth is that my day to day life is quite normal. We live in Washington DC, relatively because of the residence of the Vice President, Kamala Harris, but it does not affect our air. Yes, it is certain that from time to time they slow down the traffic, because the second group passes by the police on the streets, but what happens here does not affect everyday life. Being the capital, Washington DC can donate exceptional items with everything that will happen on January 6, 2021, as well as the entrance to the Capitol, and there is no transfer of everything.
Be aware of the postage of a presidential election to the United States, your adopted country. How are the comics present?
“There is nervousness. The people of my environment, above all the university professors but also the peers and mares of the school of my children, see that they do not play only the color of the Government for the propers four years, but the democracy of the States Units
Now that we are seeing the State Units, we are about to arrive just before the elections that George W. Bush is going to win in November 2004. But what is happening in the English elections, I feel nervous. It is true that it always happens, but this is anything more than usual, undoubtedly. The reason is because the people of my environment, above all university professors but also the peers and mares of the school of my children, see that they do not play only the color of the Government for the propers four years, but rather the democracy of the State Units , because there is a contender who is determined that he will not accept the result of the elections. This environment I’m talking about has a clearly democratic profile: here in Washington DC the Democratic Party has always had many good results.
From the other side of the Atlantic the society of the State Units appeared sovint with a fortament polaritzada i enfrontada. Is it really aixi? Who is the perception?
The politician Adam Przeworski will define democracy as a system in which, among other things, the loser of the elections accepts the results. If there is one of the contenders who says that he will not accept it, there will be nerves, it is inevitable. We don’t know exactly who Donald Trump and his followers are willing to target, but for example, some very serious statements have recently been made suggesting that it might be possible to point both weapons at former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, who has said she will donate support to Kamala. Harris.
Trump has reactionary and authoritarian ideas, which we need to fix for example in what he thinks about the immigrant population. I believed that democracy and respect for human rights are truly in the works in the immediate future.
It is expected that the elections will remain very close, in that few votes in some of the states of the frontier states could decide the result, and this will increase the feeling of polarization. Això is especially palès to these divided states, such as Pennsylvania, Nebraska or Wisconsin.
Please note that the election will be very closed. What do you think will happen?
Ara mateix hi there is a situation that we could define as tense calm, waiting to see what will happen with the recovery, above all, the thing will be very closed. There has also been tension about what will happen after the elections, obviously.
“In Pennsylvania, for example, things are very common, and it is clear that it is necessary to protect the workers of the electoral colleges because there are reasons why there are threats or threats and all attacks”
In Pennsylvania, for example, things are very common, and it is clear that it is necessary to protect the workers of the electoral colleges because this is why there have been threats or threats and all attacks. Let’s think about situations that we have seen in other parts of the world, where electoral and post-electoral violence has occurred. Als Estats Units això, fins a l’electció de Donald Trump, no hay així context. There may have been tension or polarization, but the rules of the game are respected. The great change that Trumpism has brought has been based on the rules of the election: the electoral system, the recompense of votes, etc.
It is true that there will be all the controversy of the 2000 election, in which Al Gore will lose against George W. Bush for a group of votes to Florida and the results will have to settle the Supreme Court, But he thought that the voting procedure for the country had not been questioned as much. We live in a situation in which rumors are spread, false news about cheating or malpractice, and it also generates uncertainties and possible tensions and violence.
Whoever followed the result, in addition to the elections, do you think it will reduce the tension?
Unfortunately, it has not grown, but probably the results will be quite adjusted and it will seem that these tensions are perpetual or end and increase completely. They will question the results, especially if Kamala Harris wins. It is very difficult to resolve them immediately and it is difficult to predict both the outcome of the elections and the one that will happen afterwards. Now that we are in a calm situation outside of the storm, we will see what is happening in the proper weeks and we will be able to finish and all months.
“I trust the institutions of the country, all of which I consider to have suffered a degradation because of Donald Trump and the events of the darrers anys”
I trust the country’s institutions, all of which I consider have suffered a degradation because of Donald Trump and the developments of any darrers. North American institutions are resilient, and the fet of a federal state system allows different states to act in response to certain situations. In a presidential system the president has most power, but the institutional counterweights, especially through the power of the states, help to moderate it. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court is no longer effective, since it has been politicized by a majority of conservative-leaning judges that donate support to the initiatives of the Partit Republica. The states, however, continue to have the power to counteract some of these measures.
In the second investigative team there has been a question that was clear, as it is the role that political rivalry can subsequently play in possible situations of violence and revenge. Do you think that this apparent polarization exists in the State Units and could end up leading at some point to a civil conflict with violence of a certain intensity?
We know that situations of extreme competition, as is expected to happen, can be accompanied by violence, as explained by Yale professor Steven Wilkinson, referring to the case of confrontations between Hindus and Muslims in India, or as mentioned above. It will be shown in the case of the Spanish Civil War in relation to the electoral results of February 1936 or to the Ivory Coast in the elections of November 2010.
Now that we are living in a very uncertain situation in the Stats Units, I believe that the best thing that can happen is that there is a victory for Kamala Harris on both margins, to avoid questioning the results. Now, this is unlikely and, therefore, we believe in the idea that there will be a complicated situation after the elections. I cannot say that there is necessarily a civil conflict or even violence, but it can generate tensions and uncertainty at the institutional level in the recommitment of votes next week, after the vote of the committers to the Electoral College. during the month of Gener, or at the time of the inauguration of the president.
“We know that there are paramilitary groups or armed militias that, in connivance with Trump and the Republican Party, are willing to serve the threat of violence.”
One factor that must be taken into account is the possession of weapons in the State Units, something that was closely related. We also know that there are paramilitary groups or armed militias that, in connivance with Trump and the Republican Party, are willing to serve the threat of violence or end the violence itself, to defend a Trump victory (independently of the results of the elections). These militias are perilloses, especially if there is no unanimous opinion and they give them legitimacy in a tacit manner, as has Trump with groups like the Proud Boys. Another factor to keep in mind, to finish, is that, as Roger Petersen, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), has explained by example, resentment is an emotion that can lead to violence. In recent years, Trumpism has fueled resentment among various sectors of the North American population.
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