On November 5, 50 states and the District of Columbia vote, but Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump only compete for the vote of a few: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. It’s the seven swing states that this year they will have the last word when it comes to tipping the electoral balance. The popular vote is not what elects one of the two candidates to the White House, but rather the votes of the Electoral College, which is the body that ends up electing the president.
What does it take to win the presidency?
To win the US presidency, at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia are required proportionally. While it is already known what color most states will be dyed on November 5, in the swing states It is not yet known what will happen. For this reason, both Harris and Trump have focused all their efforts on the votes of the three states of the industrial belt (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) and the four of the so-called sun belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina).
The ‘blue wall’
Among this small group, Pennsylvania is the most decisive state of the seven because it is the one that distributes the most votes in the Electoral College: 19. Now, even though Pennsylvania is necessary to reach the White House, Harris wins here It does not guarantee victory. He also has to win in the other two states of the industrial belt: Michigan and Wisconsin. The Midwestern trio is known as the blue wall, because since he voted for Bill Clinton in 1992, the Democrats – whose color is blue – have always won.
Trump broke this blue wall in 2016, taking the three states that Biden later recovered in 2020, although with very tight margins. In Pennsylvania it was a matter of about 80,000 votes.
Harris needs Nebraska
Apart from the blue wallHarris needs the votes of a state that is not considered key: Nebraska. This state, along with Maine, are the only two places that do not apply the logic of winner take it all –he who wins takes it all–, but rather they distribute the votes in the Electoral College proportionally.
If Harris manages to win the Omaha congressional district in Nebraska, he will take the blue wall and wins in the rest of the states that are already expected to turn blue, the vice president can win the White House without needing to win any of the other four swing states that belong to the sun belt. The latest polls in Michigan and Wisconsin show more favorable for Harris, while in Pennsylvania it is practically in a technical tie.
Support for Israel and Michigan
Polls are good indicators, but there is always room for errors or surprises. Michigan is where the majority of the country’s Arab population is concentrated and, for example, some cities, such as Dearborn, have a mayor of Arab origin. The Joe Biden administration’s management of the Gaza war eroded the president’s popularity in Michigan when he was the Democratic candidate, and although Harris has shown greater sensitivity to the suffering of the Gazans, her position regarding support has not changed one millimeter. military to Israel.
The disdain for the Palestinian community during the Chicago Convention did not help either, and although some of the members of the Uncommitted movement will end up voting for Harris, there are also many others who will not vote for her. They won’t do it for Trump either, but the flight of votes to other third parties could have unexpected results. Last week at a rally in Michigan, various leaders of the Muslim community took the stage to ask for a vote for Trump.
What if Harris loses Pennsylvania?
If Harris loses in Pennsylvania, she would have to win in at least two states in the state. sun belt. Georgia and North Carolina share 16 votes each, so winning one of these two and then winning Arizona (11) or Nevada (6) could be enough. If instead of losing Pennsylvania, Harris loses Michigan or Wisconsin, he has it a little easier, but he still needs at least one state in the sun belt.
The most likely one so far was North Carolina, but as the poll aggregator Fivethirtyeight shows, Trump is already managing to gain ground with a 1.4 percentage point lead. On the other hand, Nevada is predicted to be closer (and, therefore, more feasible) although Trump is still ahead with 0.4 percentage points.
The Harris campaign has been busy going through all the key states, although where it has invested the most time (and money) is in the blue wall During the month of September, one in four dollars Democrats spent on ads went to the three Midwestern states, according to AdImpact.
The sun belt
Trump has fewer paths to the White House than Harris. The Republican needs to break the blue wall again to guarantee victory, although this time it would be enough for him to remove one of the three bricks that make it up and, for now, where he has the best chance of achieving this is in Pennsylvania. If he wins here, in North Carolina and Georgia, he gets just 270 Electoral College votes. Then there’s Arizona, where Democrats won for the first time since 1996 and by a slim margin of 10,000 votes.
The Latino vote in Arizona was crucial for Biden to turn this historically Republican state into a swing state, But the latest polls show how Trump has managed to distance himself from Harris precisely thanks to the Latino vote. Even so, it remains to be seen what consequences the racist comments at the Republican rally held in Madison Square Garden last Sunday may have.
Harris has been losing steam among Latinos and also among black voters, especially men under 30. Georgia is one of the states in the country with one of the largest African-American communities. This, added to her history of voting Republican, predicts a more difficult territory for the Democrat than for the Republican. In this scenario, Pennsylvania continues to emerge as the most decisive state for the magnate as well.
Everything passes through Pennsylvania
As Pennsylvania is the state that will apparently have the final say in the elections, it is possible that the final result of the elections will not be known the same night. The legislation of this state stipulates that mail-in votes cannot begin to be counted until the polls close on election day. Pennsylvania is not the only state following this model.
The reliability of the vote counting system is also in the spotlight. The last month of the Trump campaign has been responsible for once again raising the specter of electoral fraud, so the verification of each of the votes could make the count even longer. Nor can it be ruled out that after the vote the Republicans will file legal complaints against the vote count. Trump has already done so in Pennsylvania with provisional votes, which are left out of the count while the court case is resolved.
The maximum time to certify the number of votes that each candidate has received is November 11. The next key date will be December 17, when the 538 electors will meet to vote for the president and vice president. Afterwards, it will not be until January 6 when the two chambers of Congress make the votes of each state official and certify the winner.
Historically, these were symbolic processes, but after Trump instigated the assault on the Capitol during the certification on January 6, 2021, Washington has already reinforced the security device for the date.
#key #states #presidency #United #States #decisive
