This Tuesday, the United States will hold what may be the most polarized elections in its recent history. The advantage that the polls give to Donald Trump does not prevent the Republican candidate, and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, from still fighting for every vote in the key states with reckless electoral promises from a budgetary point of view.
The country that has not recorded a public surplus since 2000and whose debt amounts to 125% of GDP, risks his Administration’s liabilities reaching 143% if Trump implements his ambitious tax reduction program. The level above 130% that the debt would reach if Harris makes his promises of more subsidies, financing of SMEs and, also, tax reductions, is no more reassuring.
Without a doubt, it is impossible for the markets to turn their backs on the economy that has the most coveted currency in the world, but No one should underestimate the effects that a chronic fiscal imbalance It will lead to the growth of the economy, the labor market and the investment capacity of the world’s leading power.
Beyond the borders of the US, the result of a worsening of the trade war with China that Trump promises would also be worrying, especially from the point of view of the EU, whose main export engine, Germany, remains on the brink of recession.
From a geopolitical point of view, Europe will also be the main affected if the Republican candidate carries out his project of settling the “absurd war” in Ukraine, making a unilateral agreement with Russia, while withdrawing all aid to kyiv.
Regardless of who wins, the result of The US elections pose challenges that will have now unpredictable effects on a global scale in the short term.
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