“This year’s assessment of imminent health threats from climate inaction reveals the most worrying results of our eight years of monitoring.” The group of scientists that has prepared the report year after year since 2015 Lancet Countdown to monitor the links between health and climate change warn that, once again, records have been broken. For worse. Of the 15 indicators that monitor hazards, exposures and impacts, a dozen reveal reached the highest figures ever seen.
This rate is superior to the speed of humans to adapt and avoid the most harmful effects. “Despite years of monitoring that have exposed imminent health threats due to climate inaction, the health risks faced by the population have been exacerbated by years of delayed adaptation, leaving people unprotected against the growing threats of climate change,” say the researchers.
By the numbers: 68% of countries reported high or very high implementation of legally mandated health emergency management capabilities in 2023, of which only 11% were low development index (HDI) countries; and only 35% have early warning systems for heat-related illnesses. “Shortage of financial resources” was identified as a “key obstacle” to adaptation. Progress is being made little by little: 50 countries reported at the end of 2023 that they had formally assessed their health vulnerabilities and need for adaptation compared to 11 the previous year; and the territories with a National Health Adaptation Plan (HNAP) grew from 4 in 2022 to 43 in 2023.
The climate crisis “is a health crisis” and “no region is left unscathed,” recalled Dr. Tedros Adhanom, director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), who has worked alongside 122 experts from 57 academic institutions and other organizations. of the United Nations in the annual report.
Affects sleep
There is consensus that “putting people’s health at the center of climate change policymaking is key.” It is enough to review these indicators: heat-related mortality in those over 65 years of age increased by 167% compared to the 1990s – 102 points more than expected without the rise in temperature; and exposure to many degrees increasingly affects physical activity and sleep quality. People who play sports were at risk of heat stress for 27% more hours than three decades ago and lost 6% more hours of sleep due to the effects of heat on sleep than the average between 1986 and 2005.
Heat exposure already affects work productivity: 512 million potential work hours have been lost in 2023
On the other hand, sand and dust storms favored by warmer and drier weather conditions caused a 31% increase in people exposed to “dangerously high concentrations of suspended particles.” This is combined with changes in rainfall patterns and increases in temperatures that are a breeding ground for the transmission of infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria, West Nile virus or vibriosis. The risk of contagion by mosquitoes that carry dengue –Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti increased by 46% and 11% respectively in the last decade, compared to the 1950s. In fact, in 2023 a record of more than five million dengue cases was broken in more than 80 territories, some of them not previously affected.
The impacts of extreme weather also have an effect on work. Heat exposure already affects labor productivity: “512 million potential work hours have been lost in 2023,” according to the report, “equivalent to $835 billion in potential income losses.” The situation especially affects the most disadvantaged communities where these impacts “further reduce their ability to face and recover from the effects of climate change,” the scientists note.
Despite the record damages recorded in the report, scientists highlight “some reasons for cautious optimism”: deaths from air pollution derived from fossil fuels fell by almost 7%, from 2.25 million in 2016 to 2.09 million in 2021. “59% of this decline was due to efforts to reduce pollution from coal combustion, demonstrating the potential of phasing out coal to save lives.”
Further from the Paris Agreement
Meanwhile, the report states, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were 1% higher than in 2022. And there is more: the proportion of fossil fuels in the global energy system increased for the first time in a decade during 2021 (the 80.3% of all energy compared to 80.1% in 2020). “While climate action is constrained by a lack of finance, investment in fossil fuels still attracted 36.6% of global energy investment in 2023, with many governments also increasing explicit subsidies for fossil fuels in response to the increase in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the report warns.
Scientists warn that, “bolstered by record profits”, the world’s 114 largest oil and gas companies have increased their planned levels of fossil fuel production from 2023, “which would lead to their emissions exceeding compatible levels with 1.5°C warming by 59% in 2030, and by a staggering 189% in 2040.”
Between 2016 and 2022, almost 182 million hectares of forests were destroyed “equivalent to 5% of the global tree cover, decreasing the world’s natural capacity to capture carbon dioxide”
Compliance with the Paris Agreement, with these figures, is increasingly further away. The worst situation is seen with 33 of these companies that could exceed their greenhouse gas emissions by more than 300% within 15 years. “The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record emissions – scientists emphasize – aggravate these dangerous health effects, and threaten to reverse the limited progress achieved so far and put a healthy future even further out of reach.”
This edition of Lancet Countdown adds new data that directly measures the impact on the ecosystem. It is estimated that between 2016 – when the Paris Agreement came into force – and 2022, almost 182 million hectares of forests were destroyed “which is equivalent to 5% of the global tree cover, decreasing the world’s natural capacity to capture carbon dioxide.” ”. The greatest losses were located in Russia (35.8 million hectares), the United States and Canada (almost 15 million hectares in each country).
On November 11, the new COP29 begins in Azerbaijan. An opportunity for countries to commit “to more ambitious climate action that not only protects the planet, but also improves health,” says Dr. John-Arne Røttingen, director of the Wellcome organization, which collaborates with the preparation of the report.
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