That mantra is repeated many times that both sides of the ocean share values, a way of seeing life. That’s almost a cliché. Europe and the United States are two friends who are not as similar as they say, but in the long run they are condemned to understand each other in a world that is increasingly about alliances. Links that for Washington until now have been ‘partnerships’ but for the EU they have become, in many matters, dependencies. With all these ingredients, the European Union will have both eyes on next November 5; in a US election in which part of the future is also at stake.
The first question is simple: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? This is what would be presented to the Union depending on the victory of one or the other, between pragmatism and the lessons learned.
Pedro Sorianoan analyst specialized in American politics, explains to 20 minutes who does not believe that Harris, for example, “have a very different vision of the relationship with the EU than Biden has right now”but he goes further: “I also don’t think he has a formed vision on the issue, apart from the most relevant issues for the Democratic Party.” The fundamental issue between the two parties will continue to be aid to Ukraine, and Soriano sees no changes there either. The candidate could agree with Trump, however, in the thesis that European countries “have to contribute more” in Defense within the framework of NATO.
Now, “the main problem of a second Trump term,” maintains the analyst, “It would mean that its authoritarian drift would be much stronger” and this would leave Europe “in a practically unprecedented situation” because he has always trusted “that American democracy with all its defects would be on his side” since 1945. “A second term for Trump would be very different because that basic principle would be greatly eroded or directly broken.” For example, Soriano concludes, “there is little doubt that his first foreign policy decision It would be leaving Ukraine hanging and forcing it to sign a humiliating peace with Russiaforcing it to hand over 20% of its territory”.
For its part, Andrea G. Rodríguezassociate researcher at the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), comments on how the country may change depending on the November result, in a hypothetical Harris-Trump. For example, for just over two years now, cooperation between the United States and Europe in “trade and technology matters” are intensifyingsomething that could be ruined with a victory for Trump, once again a supporter of a model that does not seek to compete so much against China in an orderly manner. A victory for the magnate in November would be “five more years of protectionism” for the US economysomething that would not happen at that level with Harris, since it would be continuous with the more cooperative model that Biden has had. That’s also in vogue for November.
With all this, the reality is that the EU has been advancing work and has created a group of experts to handle all possible scenarios after the elections in the United States; that nothing stands in the way of the community bloc at a time when the Union itself is also restarting, in a more ideologically charged legislature, with a more divided Parliament and a Commission that has industry, defense or strategic autonomy, precisely three areas that may clash with Washington.
Harris: let things continue (almost) as before
A victory of Kamala Harris It would be, for the EU, the way for things to continue more or less as they are. With Joe Biden, the fundamental pillar in the West has been opposition to Russia, although Harris can be seen as a kind of breath of fresh air, especially in terms of message. Washington, for example, maintains close support for Israel while there is a clear division in the Union between member states. “There is a part of convenience in this link, but now, always” and the reality is that it is sustained by “aid to Ukraine and the fact of sharing values,” summarize community sources consulted by this medium, which They don’t want to “advance anything.” The relationships, they conclude, “are not marked by the electoral results per se, but by the facts.”
Now, there is a certain catch. It cannot be said that the relationship between the EU and the United States is that of two inseparable friends: not at all. For example, With Harris in power, tensions will almost certainly continue in commercial and business matters.as was seen months ago with the IRA approved by the US: this rule is prepared to help companies according to the US Government, but Brussels considers that it goes against European companies.
The Biden Administration has created numerous bets that are in line with the priorities that the EU also has. Washington is committed to large-scale programs such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (with an investment of $550 billion); the Semiconductor Law (280,000 million); or the aforementioned IRA (394,000 million). To all this regulation we must also add those approved by each state motu proprio or, in another order of things, the very clear commitment to Defense, in which the Union is far behind (it is “decades behind”, according to the sources). With Harris that order is not going to change.
Trump: a return to the past… but without hazing
With donald trump back in the white house The transatlantic relationship would shake again, but with lessons learned. The preference is Harris because, at least, the tone will be much more bearable beyond the friction that may occur. With Trump there would be a new challenge, based on past experiences on which the EU is already working. Support for Ukraine is at stake. Donald Trump has repeated on several occasions that he could do that the war “ends in 24 hours” if he returns to the White Housegiven, he assured, his good feeling with Vladimir Putin. Nobody believes that maxim. The Republicans, furthermore, They have other points on the agenda such as tariffs (they already occurred in the magnate’s previous mandate) to tighten the trade war. This is also linked a “sidereal” distance when it comes to issues such as the fight against climate change. Now, “nothing we have not already seen,” they conclude from Brussels.
But maybe Trump’s return could be “an opportunity”sources say with a certain optimistic perspective. The EU wants – and knows it needs – to be more autonomous in matters such as the military, the productive sectors or more specific areas such as rare materials. Being a bloc that “grows in crises” can understand a Trump 2.0 as an open door to accelerate this process of strategic autonomy. “Steps have already been taken,” they acknowledge in the European institutions, but everything needs to be accelerated. The question remains, for example, as to where NATO will remain under another era led by the billionaire, so the Union wants to get healthy.
The elections of November 5 are not theirs, but the EU partly takes them as if they were. In the world of multipolarity, even if your partners are not the same as you, it is important to know what is going on in their heads. Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will set the course from the White House, but their decisions will have an effect on what may happen in Brussels. Thus, they are two different models; The Union knows both, either because of past experiences with the Republicans or because they do not see much change in what is happening right now in the case of the Democrats. What is best for the EU? Only time will tell, after passing through the polls.
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