Israel had warned that its next attack on Iran would be lethal and surprising. In view of what is known at the moment about what happened last morning, the three waves of air attacks do not seem to comply with any of those initial assumptions.
If lethal is understood as deadly, the result falls far short of the statements, to the extent that only the death of two Iranians is known. Israel will always be able to argue that its operation Days of Repentance It was precisely directed against military objectives, trying to avoid harm to civilians, and, therefore, this result only indicates a supposed humanitarian commitment.
But, even if this were the case (with all the doubts that arise from his brutal behavior both in Gaza and the West Bank and in Lebanon), it does not seem that he has managed to cause relevant damage to his enemy in relation to his ability to defend himself and, when the time comes, case, attack Israeli territory again.
In fact, although it has been confirmed that explosions have occurred in the provinces of Khuzestan and Ilam, and especially in Tehran and its surroundings, nothing indicates that the damage suffered to its anti-aircraft defense system – a battery of S-300 is mentioned (Russian) installed at the capital’s international airport, at the headquarters of a company involved in the construction of drones, at some missile facilities operated by the will pass and at the Parchin military base (near the capital) – will minimally reduce Iran’s ability to carry out new attacks.
On the other hand, the only thing that may be surprising about the Israeli attack is that, for the first time, Tel Aviv has openly acknowledged its responsibility. At this point it was very difficult for the planes that Israel may have used to achieve even tactical surprise, given that Iran was amply warned that the attack was going to occur and kept its military forces on maximum alert.
It was also known – after the attacks carried out against the Yemeni militia Ansar Allah in the port of Hodeida – that the Israeli air force is now in a position to attack practically any corner of Iran, thanks to the modifications it has made to its F-planes. 16 and F-35 to increase their flight autonomy and to the existence of seven in-flight refueling aircraft that allow these fighters to fly to their targets, drop their bombs and return directly to their bases after traveling almost 4,000 km.
The type of objectives pursued by Israel, renouncing to attack oil facilities or those linked to the controversial Iranian nuclear program, is not surprising either, especially if political and strategic considerations are taken into account. By doing so, Tel Aviv intends to give the impression that it is bowing to the dictates of Washington, fearful of being involved in a regional war and with a rise in hydrocarbon prices in the midst of an election campaign.
In reality, it is enough to take into consideration the effort that the Israeli machine is developing in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon (in addition to trying to keep Iran’s other regional pawns at bay) to understand that right now it made no sense to carry out a coup. even more brutal against Tehran, which would lead to an escalation that would soon make clear its limitations in facing a head-on clash with a power like Iran.
Incidentally, he hopes that Iran will not feel compelled to respond immediately on a large scale; In fact, the Iranian message, trying to show that the damage suffered has been minimal, can be interpreted as a gesture of acceptance of an informal truce in the exchange of reciprocal attacks, given that its main pawns (Hamas and Hizbullah) are extremely weakened and Their direct attacks barely manage to penetrate Israeli defenses (even less after the reinforcement provided by the United States with the deployment of a THAAD missile battery on Israeli soil).
By acting in this way, Israel is counting on Iran – aware of its inferiority in a confrontation in which it would also have to count on American participation – to also decide to limit its war efforts, both directly and through the militias that it manages to varying degrees in the region. .
In this way you keep all options open to go further whenever you consider it appropriate; That is, when it can reduce the effort on the other fronts in which it is currently engaged. For its part, it also pleases Washington, allowing it to show off its ability to modulate Tel Aviv’s warmongering desires; knowing that in exchange he will have obtained some favorable compensation to continue with the massacre in Gaza and the West Bank and to receive more aid in weapons and money.
While waiting to see whether Iran adapts to this script or not, it is still sarcastic that once again the voices are repeated that, on the one hand, recognize Israel’s right to self-defense – forgetting that Iran also has it. – and that, on the other hand, they demand containment of Iran – while allowing Israel to cross all the red lines marked by international law.
What is clear in any case is that the end of the conflict is not near.
*Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde is co-director of the Institute for Conflict Studies and Humanitarian Action (IECAH)
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