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The latest national survey conducted by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College demonstrates an electoral panorama in the United States, where Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are in a technical tie, each with 48% voting intention, less than two weeks before the elections and with millions of Americans who have already exercised their right to vote.
According to the NYT analysis, This result does not present a favorable scenario for Harris, considering that historically the Democrats have maintained an advantage in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College. The party expected Harris to build a solid national lead as an indicator of a strong performance in key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The race has remained surprisingly stable despite going through three of the most turbulent months in recent US political history, including a high-profile debate, two attacks on Trump, numerous rallies in seven states and hundreds of millions spent on advertising.
For Trump, immigration emerges as a strong point: 15% of those surveyed indicate it as their main concernan increase from the previous 12%. The former president maintains an 11-point lead over Harris on this issue, after promising to carry out “the largest deportation in the history of the United States.” Besides, The general pessimism about the direction of the country, with only 28% approval, has historically been a warning sign for the ruling party.
For her part, Harris maintains a significant lead of 16 points on the issue of access to abortion, a fundamental pillar of her campaign to attract the female vote. Besides, Democrats lead among undecided voters (15% of the electorate) with 42% to Trump’s 32%a notable improvement considering that two weeks ago Trump maintained a slight lead in this group.
The electoral battlefield
Based on the projections From RealClearPolitics (RCP), the 2024 Electoral College map reflects a deeply divided nation. Trump/Vance maintains a slight advantage with 219 electoral votes compared to Harris/Walz’s 215while 104 votes remain in dispute in key states.
The Harris/Walz Democratic ticket has strong support in traditionally blue states. Colorado (10), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14) and Oregon (8) emerge as safe Democratic strongholds, totaling 52 electoral votes. In addition, they maintain a tighter but significant lead in Maine (2), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5) and Virginia (13).
For its part, Trump/Vance dominates the panorama in the south and center of the country. Florida (30), Ohio (17) and Texas (40) lean toward the Republican side, while states such as Alaska (3), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4) and South Carolina (9) remain solid conservative territories.
The real battle will be fought in nine states currently considered battleground, totaling 104 crucial electoral votes: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10) and Nebraska’s 2nd District (1) . These territories, characterized by narrow margins in previous elections, will likely determine the next occupant of the White House. Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10) and Nebraska’s 2nd District (1). These territories, characterized by narrow margins in previous elections, will likely determine the next occupant of the White House.
Source: NYT – RCP
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