The polls are moving in this hot political fall, but the balance between the blocks becomes chronic. Popular Party and Vox would reach the absolute majority thanks to a PP that remains the leading force and is gradually gaining ground, although it is still far from being able to govern alone. Among the Government parties, the PSOE weathers the storm and barely shows any electoral wear, but Sumar’s weakness would make it impossible to revalidate the coalition.
The latest Key Data study for Public maintains the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo as first political force in the general elections with 156 deputies and 35% of the votes. The popular They have gained six seats at the start of the new political course, three in the last month.
They are the deputies that the PSOE has left behind in recent weeks, which would now have 122 seats in Parliament and 29.2% of the vote. A worse scenario than the one drawn by the polls at the return of the summer, but better than that of the general elections, where Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE won 121 deputies. “The PSOE barely shows wear and tear despite managing a particularly complicated political situation,” says Paz Álvarez, technical director of Key Data.
On the other hand, his partner’s situation is one of weakness. Sumar loses five percentage points of the votegoing from 12.3% obtained on July 23, 2023 to 7.1%, and remains at 12 seats, nineteen less. However, those of Yolanda Díaz are experiencing a slight rebound in recent months that is not enough to be able to revalidate the current absolute majority held by the coalition government.
This study has analyzed all the surveys published from September 22 to October 22, so it does not include the demographic effects of the resignation of Sumar spokesperson, Íñigo Errejón, due to accusations of sexist violence.
Weak Vox, but enough to give the Government to the PP
Vox does not enjoy good electoral health either, according to surveys. Santiago Abascal’s party maintains a downward trend and if general elections were held now it would obtain 26 seats (10.8% of the vote), seven less than those it currently has in the Congress of Deputies. The extreme right has not suffered wear and tear due to information about irregularities in its financing, judging by surveys, which show no changes in the last month.
Furthermore, those of Abascal continue to be essential for the PP to achieve an absolute majority.
Regarding Podemos, the purple formation lowers the electoral expectations it had before the summer holidays and, with 3.2% of the vote, it would now achieve two seats in Congress. He has lost one in the last month. With this result, the formation led by Ione Belarra would earn one more deputy than Se Acabó La Fiesta, the electoral group created by the ultra agitator Alvise Pérezwhich is also in a position at this time to take 3.2% of the vote in a general election.
With respect to the Government’s partners, Junts maintains the first position among the Catalan independence movement and would obtain one more seat than ERC, eight compared to seven. In the Basque Country, a tie of six seats between EH Bildu and PNV, although with Bildu slightly ahead in percentage vote.
The study prepared by Key Data for Público is an analysis desk research of all the information available, both on electoral behavior in the field of the election and its evolution and on all the surveys, published or not, to which we have had access. With all this information and applying the corresponding weights, a vote estimate is reached on which the electoral law is applied to assign seats.
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