On November 5, 244 million Americans will exercise their right to vote and choose which of the two candidates to president or president of the United States stays with the White House. In the vast majority of states, the vote has already been decided. However, there are seven swing-states (hinge states) that will be the truly decisive ones in the outcome of these elections.
Due to the tightness of the polls that it updates periodically The New York Times the key to victory lies in these seven undecided states. Therefore, both Kamala Harris as donald trump They have dedicated most of their efforts in these regions. It is estimated that the parties have used 76% of their resources for only 18% of the country’s population.
These seven states are Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Snowfall, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In total, they distribute 93 electoral delegates. And since the polls give Harris 222 delegates (159 certain and 63 probable), while Trump has 219 (103 guaranteed, 116 probable), These delegates will be decisive in the outcome.
He United States electoral system does not grant victory to the one who has the most popular support, but to who obtains 270 Electoral College votes. This systemknown as winner-takes-all (“winner takes all”), is based on the decision of the Electoral College, made up of 538 electors representing the 50 states. Of these 538, 435 are the representatives – distributed among the regions – of the Lower House; another 100 correspond to two senators from each state; and the last three are the electors of the District of Columbia, where the capital is located, Washington.
In the 93 delegates who have yet to speak, the advantage is so small that it falls within the margin of error, and the precision of the polls is very relative. At the moment, Kamala Harris wins by one percentage point in North Carolina, Snowfall, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In turn, trump leads the Democratic candidate by one point in Michigan and for two in Georgia and Arizona. If the forecast is fulfilled, Harris would win with 277 electoral delegatescompared to Trump’s 261.
However, a slight change in a couple of the swing-states It has the ability to cause a very different outcome. Any loss of power in one of the seven states could cost both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump the presidency.
The ‘swing-states’, in depth
Pennsylvania It is the region most coveted by both parties, since it is the fastest route to the White House. Along with Michigan and Wisconsin, these three Rust Belt regions could reaffirm the “blue wall” who already won Biden in 2020 and secure a Democratic victory. If Pennsylvania goes for Trump, the Republican candidate will have to keep North Carolina and recover Georgia to win the presidency. In both cases, a defeat in Pennsylvania would be a hard blow, since it blocks many combinations with other states.
Michiganalso belonging to the “blue wall” that Biden managed to reconquer in 2020, has been the region most served by both candidates in recent weeks. However, as the state with the largest population of Arab Americans, many feel betrayed by the Biden support to Israel in their attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. For this reason, they have considered abstaining or redirecting their vote to third candidates, such as Green Party.
Wisconsin It is being the most difficult front for Harris. Trump makes frequent visits to this state, and was officially inaugurated as a candidate in its most populous city, Milwaukee. However, the Democratic candidate also chose this city to hold her first rally. Both formations have their eyes set on the youths.
Georgia was the focus of great electoral tensions in 2020. The first Democratic victory in three decades was so surprising that Trump came to demand a second recount of votes. On this occasion, Harris appeals especially to vote of the populationwhich represents a third of the total. In 2020, Biden was supported by 92% of black voters, compared to 6% who supported Trump.
Arizona It represents a special conflict between the two parties. 25% of voters are latinosand these lean towards Harris. However, with Arizona being one of the main entry routes for migration, the population is divided. Some demand greater border control, while others demand more rights for migrants.
Snowfall is he swing-state which has less weight in the final result, which does not mean that it cannot be decisive in a case of maximum tie results. Despite the fact that the Republicans are gaining more and more ground, Kamala Harris trusts in the influence of the Latino vote, since Nevada is the fifth state with the largest Hispanic population.
North Carolina has such Republican roots that the only two Democratic victories have been that of Jimmy Carter in 1976 and that of Barack Obama in 2008. However, the fact that the black population makes up 23% of potential voters, as well as the increase in workers with higher education, are the trump card that Harris intends to play with.
Both in these seven states and in the remaining 43, the issues that interest American voters are mainly three: economythe immigration policies and the abortion. The positions of Trump and Harris on these points, as well as the final decision of the swing-states They will dictate who will be the next person to occupy the White House.
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