The United States is preparing to return to the polls with the same uncertainty as four years ago: a close race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, who took over just three months ago after Joe Biden resigned from the candidacy. to the presidency.
These are the keys to not get lost in the next elections.
When are the US elections?
The date will be next November 5, since tradition dictates that they be celebrated on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every four years. Some states open the voting by mail process weeks earlier.
As usual, the media will have a crucial role, being the ones who project during the election night or the hours afterward who is the winner of the elections, since the authorities take weeks to make results official.
The winner will begin a four-year term in the White House starting in January 2025. On the 20th of that month, called ‘Inauguration Day’, the president-elect takes office in Congress and travels a short journey to the White House .
Why are the elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November?
Presidential elections are always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The reason why Americans have established it this way dates back to the 19th century and responds to practical reasons of the time. The society at that time was mainly dedicated to agriculture, so the month of November seemed ideal: the harvest would have already finished, but it would not be too cold.
As for Tuesday’s election, it has a religious undertone. Calculating that it might take a day’s walk to reach the voting point, it was decided that Sunday could not be a good day, since the Jews would not come because they would be celebrating the sabbath. In the same way, it couldn’t be Monday either, because Sunday was the day of rest for Christians. Wednesday was market day, so Tuesday seemed like the best option.
How does the American electoral system work?
The winner of the elections is not the person who obtains the most votes in the entire country. What is chosen in the elections are the members of the Electoral College, the body that will subsequently elect the president.
The Electoral College is made up of 538 delegates, which are equivalent to the number of members of the House of Representatives (435), plus the number of senators (100) and the three delegates from Washington DC, who do not have representatives in either chamber. . In total, it is necessary to get the vote of half plus one, that is, at least 270, to win the elections.
Those 538 members are contributed proportionally by the 50 states and the District of Columbia. For example, this year Pennsylvania distributes 19 electoral votes, while Arizona gives 11, Texas 40, New York 28 and the District of Columbia three.
Whoever wins in each state, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, takes all the electors, under the premise of the winner takes it all. Or what is the same: even though the difference is a matter of a few votes, whoever manages to prevail takes all the delegates from that state.
For this reason, the elections are really at stake in a handful of key, decisive or ‘hinge’ states, those known as swing states.
What are the swing states?
There are seven key states in which citizens’ votes will decide the outcome of the elections: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Of the seven swing statesPennsylvania is the one that this year has the key that will open the doors to the Oval Office. At the state level, there are also a number of cities and counties that will decide who wins in each state. This year, the Associated Press estimates that Wayne County – where Detroit (Michigan) is located –, Mecklenburg County – where Charlotte (North Carolina) is located – and Fulton County – where Atlanta (Georgia) is located – will be some of the places that will have to be followed closely during election night. In the case of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the counties surrounding the cities of Milwaukee and Philadelphia will also be crucial.
In Arizona, as happened in the last elections, Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located, will be decisive in once again deciding the color with which the state will be dyed. More than 60% of the votes cast in the 2020 election came from this county. In Nevada, the same thing happens with Clark County, where Las Vegas is located: more than two-thirds of Nevada’s votes came from this county.
In 2020, Biden managed to defeat Trump by about 10,000 votes in Arizona, and thanks to this he took the 11 electors from this state. Since 1996, a Democrat has not been able to win this border state, so he became swing state due to the probability of leaning towards one color or another.
In the other six key states, polls also show a close race between Trump and Harris, so they are now considered swings. A few years ago, Ohio was known as the swing state par excellence, but in 2016 it stopped being so with the victory of the Republican.
Who benefits from this system?
This winner-take-all logic and the historical fact that some rural states (which tend to vote Republican) have greater representation is something that works in Trump’s favor.
For example, California, the most populous state that tends to vote Democratic, has 54 electoral votes to represent 39.24 million people. In Wyoming, the least populated state that has historically voted Republican, approximately 578,000 people are represented by three electoral votes. That is, a person’s vote in Wyoming counts 3.6 times more than a person’s vote in California.
And what happens if there is a tie?
If you do the math, it’s easy to see that 538 is an even number and there could be a tie at 269 in the Electoral College.
Although it is very unlikely that this scenario will occur, the legislation already contemplates a solution. In this case, the House of Representatives would elect the president from among the three candidates with the most votes. The rules establish that each state casts a vote and this is decided by a majority among the congressmen of each state. On the other hand, the Senate would choose the vice president from among the two candidates with the most votes – the situation could arise of having a president from one party and a vice president from another.
This situation has occurred twice in the history of the United States. In 1801, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr received the same number of electoral votes. The House of Representatives then had to vote 36 times in a row over five days until Jefferson received a majority of votes in favor.
But wait, are there more candidates besides Trump and Harris?
Beyond Trump and Harris, the candidates of the two major parties in the country, in the 2024 presidential elections there are also candidates from third parties who could surprise in key states. In each swing state There is at least one independent or third-party presidential candidate on the ballot. None of them will come anywhere close to the White House, but they may have effects on the trajectories of Trump and Harris.
Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, and Robert F. Kennedy, a former independent candidate who now supports Trump, are among the two most well-known names. Stein is popular among Arab voters because of his position on Israel’s war in Gaza and two weeks before the election, a poll by the New York Times gives him about 1% support nationally. The same goes for Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate. Their presence on the ballot in just a few states could take away enough votes from the major party candidates to tip the balance of the Electoral College and the election.
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