Election political polls today 16 October 2024
ELECTION POLITICAL POLLS – FDI and Pd are declining, M5S and Forza Italia are gaining consensus: this is what emerges from the latest electoral political polls developed by Swg for the TgLa7.
According to the survey, Fratelli d’Italia, which remains firmly the leading Italian party, fell by 0.2 percent and thus fell to 29.3%.
The Democratic Party collapses, losing almost half a percentage point (-0.4%) falling back to 22.3 percent. The 5 Star Movement takes advantage of this and instead gains 0.3 percent: Giuseppe Conte’s party is now at 11.7%.
Forza Italia also grew by 0.3% and is now at 9%. The League follows (+0.1%) at 8.6 percent, while the Greens/Italian Left drops to 6.8%.
Among the other minor parties, however, Action, down by 0.1 percent, is credited with 2.7% while Italia Viva returns to growth (+0.1%) which goes back to 2.3 percent.
HOW POLLS ARE DONE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling companies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to interview that is sufficiently large and representative of the population they intend to analyse. In the case of surveys on party voting intentions or the confidence index of political leaders, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. The greatest difficulty for pollsters is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population. Interviews for electoral political surveys are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
Read also: All surveys
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