The November 5 US presidential elections are not just an episode of American political life, but rather a global event that people follow with interest, and even passion, around the world. Whether you live in a democratic regime or an authoritarian regime, and whether you are an ally of the United States or its opponent, leaders and people alike are following with great interest the news of the American election campaign and its fluctuations, and eagerly anticipating its results. This is because the United States remains the first power in the world, and the decisions taken in Washington have an impact on the entire world.
One can say that the election of the President of the United States of America is a global election in which only Americans vote. Everyone is involved in elections, but only American citizens have decision-making power, of course. Then there is another paradox. We know that if the United States catches a cold, the whole world might sneeze. The fact is that American voters do not generally take international issues into consideration when making their decisions. The United States has great importance in the world, but the outside world is relatively unimportant in the electoral process. It may be useful to point out here that 50 percent of those elected to the US Congress do not have a passport, because they do not see any benefit or benefit in traveling outside the United States.
The European and Asian allies of the United States fear Donald Trump’s return to power, because for him the concept of alliance is an old and outdated concept. This is because he is in a relationship that is always based on making deals. He has told Europeans on several occasions that they should not rely on the United States to defend them against the Russian threat, and that it is up to them to take care of themselves. If some Europeans believe that Trump’s position may represent a welcome warning that might finally push them to take action on this issue, others are terrified and appear ready to accept Donald Trump’s more extreme conditions in order to maintain American protection, and thus increase Europe’s dependence on Washington.
However, if Joe Biden is a more reliable strategic ally than Donald Trump, his message, from an economic standpoint, has affected Europe as well. This is because the “Inflation Reduction Act,” which is a plan to green the American economy, and although it is good for the planet, it is very harmful to European industries. This is because many of these industries began closing their factories in Europe, due to the temptation of American subsidies, in order to establish new factories on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Joe Biden says he listens to the Europeans, but the diplomatic alliance does not prevent fierce economic competition.
Tokyo and Seoul also share this fear of American disengagement if Donald Trump is elected in the face of potential regional tensions, especially as a result of North Korean threats. For their part, African countries remember that Donald Trump described them as “dirty countries,” and therefore, they do not want to see him again in the White House. The same applies to Latin American countries, with the exception of Argentina, led by Javier Mele.
They all fear the blows that Donald Trump will inevitably deal to the multilateral system, which is already in a bad state. Donald Trump will also try to weaken the United Nations – which is already not well – and all international organizations.
They also fear that Donald Trump and his supporters will not admit defeat if Kamala Harris wins, and that what happened on January 6, 2021 will be repeated, and perhaps worse, when supporters of the Republican candidate stormed the Capitol building.
However, not all leaders feel this concern. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to hold on as prime minister until November 5, knowing that he will be able to count on truly unconditional American support if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The same goes for Russia, where Vladimir Putin has publicly declared that the election of Donald Trump or the election of Kamala Harris are the same. However, he knows very well that Donald Trump will stop US military aid to Ukraine almost immediately, and that the Europeans will find it difficult to continue on their own.
As for China, apart from the Republican candidate’s anti-Beijing speeches, he can only be happy with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. First, because the latter will assign major responsibilities to Elon Musk, who has significant economic interests in China and cooperates with Beijing. Secondly, because he believes that the “Republican” candidate is suffering from problems, and that his presidency will only lead to the weakening of the United States, which will facilitate the relative growth of China’s power.
*Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris
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