09/10/2024 – 14:00
The price increases that resulted in the main pressures on the country’s inflation in September were a consequence of climatic disturbances. The assessment was made by the manager of the National Price Index System of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), André Almeida.
The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) went from a drop of 0.02% in August to an increase of 0.44% in September. The advances were led by increases of 5.36% in electricity, an impact of 0.21 percentage points, and 0.50% in food and beverages, a contribution of 0.11 percentage points.
“The IPCA was influenced mainly by electricity, and also by food and beverages,” said Almeida. “The main positive impacts in the month of September, both in terms of electricity and in the case of meat and fruit, and climate factors contributed to the rise in prices.”
Food at home became 0.56% more expensive in September. There were increases in the prices of papaya (10.34%), pear oranges (10.02%), ground coffee (4.02%) and sirloin steak (3.79%).
“The supply of these fruits is decreasing because these crops are being affected by droughts. Fruits increase with a reduction in supply”, explained the analyst at the IBGE National Price Index Management, Denise Cordovil.
Fruits became 2.79% more expensive in September. The meat subgroup recorded an increase of 2.97%, the biggest increase since December 2020, when it increased 3.58%.
“In 2024, beef prices fell for most of the first half of the year, mainly due to greater supply of the product. The drought reduced the quality of pasture, so we see an increase in cattle prices in September. This also affects the price of long-life milk”, explained Cordovil.
According to Cordovil, the drier climate, drought and fires contribute to a reduction in the supply of food products.
“It is the effect of the drier climate, lower incidence of rain that affects crop productivity, and the occurrence of fires is a fact that also contributes to reducing the supply of products”, agreed the researcher.
André Almeida, manager of the IBGE National Price Index System, adds that the current period is already an off-season for meat. “The absence of rain and dry weather intensified this off-season. There was a greater number of slaughters throughout the first half of the year. So now in this off-season, winter period, we have had an intensification of the climate issue. The climate issue intensified the off-season supply,” he said.
As for electricity, the rise in cost in September was driven by the change from the green tariff flag to the red flag level 1. In October, the red flag level 2 was activated, which will once again put pressure on household spending on energy, acknowledged Almeida . He considers that the tariff flag is just one of the components that affect the calculation of electricity bill expenses.
“With regard to the tariff flag component, in fact, in October we will have a change to the red flag level 2. So we will go from charging R$4.46 to R$7.87 for every 100 kW /h consumed. From August to September we went from R$0 to R$4.46”, recalled Almeida. “In terms of pressure from the tariff flag, yes, there will be additional pressure.”
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